 62: 24/18 13/11 |
|
|
|
1. | Book1 | 24/18 13/11 | eq: +0.010 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 50.71% (G:13.40% B:1.16%)
49.29% (G:14.22% B:1.01%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (+0.007...+0.014) - [100.0%] |
|
| 2. | Book1 | 24/16 | eq: -0.019 (-0.029) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 50.35% (G:12.37% B:0.98%)
49.65% (G:14.27% B:0.89%) | Conf.: ± 0.003 (-0.022...-0.015) - [0.0%] |
|
| 3. | Book1 | 13/5 | eq: -0.025 (-0.035) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 49.16% (G:14.68% B:1.29%)
50.84% (G:14.38% B:1.41%) | Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.029...-0.022) - [0.0%] |
|
| 4. | Book2 | 13/11 13/7 | eq: -0.082 (-0.092) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.20% (G:13.73% B:0.69%)
51.80% (G:14.88% B:0.88%) | |
|
| 5. | Book2 | 24/22 13/7 | eq: -0.085 (-0.095) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.00% (G:12.86% B:0.51%)
52.00% (G:13.94% B:0.60%) | |
|
| |
1 Generated by Steven Carey on 02-Aug-12 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00
46656 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 38795213
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 Generated by GameSite 2000, Ltd on 21-May-11 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00
Analyzed in XG Roller++
|
|
|
 62: 13/11 13/7* |
|
|
|
1. | XG Roller++ | 24/22 13/7* | eq: -0.031 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.92% (G:13.16% B:0.58%)
51.08% (G:13.20% B:0.58%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | 13/11 13/7* | eq: -0.042 (-0.011) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.81% (G:14.13% B:0.67%)
51.19% (G:14.37% B:0.86%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller++ | 13/7* 7/5 | eq: -0.101 (-0.069) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 47.66% (G:13.15% B:0.55%)
52.34% (G:14.53% B:0.78%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller++ | 13/7* 8/6 | eq: -0.176 (-0.145) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.92% (G:12.77% B:0.54%)
54.08% (G:14.91% B:0.82%) | |
|
| 5. | 4-ply | 13/7* 6/4 | eq: -0.199 (-0.167) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 46.13% (G:12.05% B:0.53%)
53.87% (G:16.33% B:1.26%) | |
|
|
|
| 31: Bar/24 13/10 |
|
|
|
| 1. | XG Roller++ | Bar/24 13/10 | eq: -0.201 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 46.18% (G:12.98% B:0.67%)
53.82% (G:16.80% B:1.03%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | Bar/21 | eq: -0.221 (-0.020) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 46.29% (G:11.68% B:0.61%)
53.71% (G:16.99% B:0.71%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller++ | Bar/22 6/5 | eq: -0.241 (-0.040) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 46.39% (G:12.04% B:0.64%)
53.61% (G:19.51% B:1.18%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller++ | Bar/22 11/10 | eq: -0.243 (-0.043) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.65% (G:11.68% B:0.56%)
54.35% (G:17.51% B:0.77%) | |
|
| 5. | XG Roller++ | Bar/22 24/23 | eq: -0.245 (-0.045) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.81% (G:11.67% B:0.58%)
54.19% (G:17.84% B:0.76%) | |
|
|
|
| 51: 13/7 |
|
|
|
| 1. | XG Roller++ | 13/7 | eq: +0.079 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 51.60% (G:15.42% B:0.90%)
48.40% (G:14.31% B:0.73%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | 11/6 8/7 | eq: -0.098 (-0.177) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.14% (G:13.83% B:0.73%)
51.86% (G:15.68% B:0.75%) | |
|
| 3. | 4-ply | 13/8 6/5 | eq: -0.211 (-0.291) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 46.11% (G:13.11% B:0.65%)
53.89% (G:17.36% B:1.43%) | |
|
| 4. | 4-ply | 24/23 13/8 | eq: -0.226 (-0.306) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.59% (G:13.07% B:0.72%)
54.41% (G:17.79% B:1.10%) | |
|
| 5. | 4-ply | 24/18 | eq: -0.244 (-0.324) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.94% (G:12.66% B:0.78%)
54.06% (G:18.90% B:1.26%) | |
|
|
|
| 54: 24/15 |
|
|
|
| 1. | XG Roller++ | 24/15 | eq: -0.339 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44.58% (G:11.36% B:0.62%)
55.42% (G:20.08% B:1.12%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | 13/9 10/5 | eq: -0.441 (-0.102) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 41.38% (G:11.87% B:0.61%)
58.62% (G:20.17% B:1.79%) | |
|
| 3. | 4-ply | 13/4 | eq: -0.483 (-0.144) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 40.49% (G:11.22% B:0.57%)
59.51% (G:20.00% B:1.58%) | |
|
| 4. | 4-ply | 10/5 8/4 | eq: -0.498 (-0.159) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 40.76% (G:10.71% B:0.53%)
59.24% (G:21.42% B:2.02%) | |
|
| 5. | 4-ply | 24/20 13/8 | eq: -0.500 (-0.161) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 40.91% (G:11.15% B:0.70%)
59.09% (G:22.60% B:1.32%) | |
|
|
|
| 42: 8/4 6/4 |
|
|
|
| 1. | 4-ply | 8/4 6/4 | eq: +0.187 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 52.74% (G:18.15% B:0.81%)
47.26% (G:12.38% B:0.73%) | |
|
| 2. | 4-ply | 24/22 11/7 | eq: -0.043 (-0.230) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 48.23% (G:13.77% B:0.53%)
51.77% (G:12.89% B:0.51%) | |
|
| 3. | 4-ply | 13/11 13/9 | eq: -0.118 (-0.305) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 46.14% (G:13.79% B:0.53%)
53.86% (G:13.13% B:0.69%) | |
|
| 4. | 3-ply | 13/9 11/9 | eq: -0.162 (-0.348) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.74% (G:12.74% B:0.57%)
54.26% (G:13.68% B:0.70%) | |
|
| 5. | 3-ply | 24/18 | eq: -0.172 (-0.359) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 46.49% (G:12.60% B:0.62%)
53.51% (G:15.64% B:0.80%) | |
|
|
|
| 21: 15/14* 13/11 |
|
|
|
| 1. | XG Roller++ | 15/14* 13/11 | eq: -0.284 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 45.40% (G:12.63% B:0.82%)
54.60% (G:19.99% B:1.16%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller++ | 24/22 15/14* | eq: -0.334 (-0.050) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44.61% (G:11.89% B:0.79%)
55.39% (G:21.80% B:1.43%) | |
|
| 3. | XG Roller++ | 15/14* 10/8 | eq: -0.358 (-0.075) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 44.15% (G:11.60% B:0.71%)
55.85% (G:19.84% B:0.95%) | |
|
| 4. | XG Roller++ | 15/14* 11/9 | eq: -0.396 (-0.113) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 43.09% (G:11.92% B:0.84%)
56.91% (G:21.39% B:1.43%) | |
|
| 5. | 4-ply | 15/13 11/10 | eq: -0.464 (-0.180) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 42.08% (G:9.18% B:0.40%)
57.92% (G:20.63% B:0.51%) | |
|
|
|
55: Bar/15* 6/1*(2)  |
|
|
|
| 1. | 4-ply | Bar/15* 6/1*(2) | eq: +1.044 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 68.62% (G:42.67% B:1.94%)
31.38% (G:7.11% B:0.40%) | |
|
| 2. | 4-ply | Bar/15* 8/3(2) | eq: +0.873 (-0.171) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 64.81% (G:30.77% B:1.90%)
35.19% (G:8.35% B:0.45%) | |
|
| 3. | 4-ply | Bar/15* 15/10 6/1* | eq: +0.781 (-0.263) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 63.35% (G:32.08% B:1.60%)
36.65% (G:9.08% B:0.54%) | |
|
| 4. | 3-ply | Bar/15* 13/8 6/1* | eq: +0.691 (-0.353) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 61.63% (G:31.77% B:1.64%)
38.37% (G:10.24% B:0.73%) | |
|
| 5. | 3-ply | Bar/15* 15/10 13/8 | eq: +0.615 (-0.429) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 59.83% (G:24.75% B:1.40%)
40.17% (G:9.89% B:0.58%) | |
|
|
|
| 62: Bar/23 |
|
|
|
| 1. | 3-ply | Bar/23 | eq: -1.084 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 30.25% (G:6.88% B:0.41%)
69.75% (G:44.65% B:1.97%) | |
|
|
|
| Double/Pass |
|
|
|
| Analyzed in XG Roller++ |
No double |
Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: |
70.25% (G:44.95% B:1.83%) |
70.14% (G:46.02% B:1.86%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: |
29.75% (G:6.80% B:0.40%) |
29.86% (G:6.91% B:0.42%) |
| Cubeless Equities |
+0.953 |
+2.762 |
| Cubeful Equities |
| No double: | +1.106 | |
| Double/Take: | +2.273 (+1.167) | |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (-0.106) |
| |
| Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass |
| Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 8.3% |
|
Μια λύση σ' αυτές τις θέσεις είναι να τις συγκρίνει κανείς με τις (αρκετά γνωστές) θέσεις που προκύπτουν έπειτα από 55 στη δεύτερη ζαριά.
Εδώ ο αμυνόμενος έχει ως σχετικό πλεονέκτημα την πόρτα στο 11 και το ότι το μέσα blot του είναι στην καλύτερη δυνατή θέση, στο 23 και, φυσικά ως σχετικό μειονέκτημα το ευάλωτο τρίτο πούλι στο 14.
Ο επιτιθέμενος όμως έχει κάνει ακόμα μεγαλύτερη πρόοδο: έχει την πόρτα 4 αντί για την 3, έχει δέκα πούλια στη ζώνη, έχει φτιάξει το bar, και φυσικά έχει double shot στο τρίτο πούλι. Τέλος, κανένα από τα νούμερα που χτυπάνε (6, 5 4 και 2) δεν είναι ντουμπλαρισμένο.
Όλα αυτά, και κυρίως το double shot και τα διαφοροποιημένα επιπλεόν επιτιθέμενα πούλια αρκούν (σε συνδυασμό βέβαια με το ότι ο αντίπαλος είναι ήδη χτυπημένος) για να παίξει κανείς too good με μεγάλη σιγουριά ότι θα πάρει τον πόντο με τον βίδο αν τα πράγματα αρχίσουν να στραβώνουν. |
|
| Wins 1pt. |
|
|
|
|