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15 point match, Score is Avdis: 6, Groutsos: 1

Quick Summary:

Avdis  Category Groutsos 
Expert (-0.0116) Total Error Intermediate (-0.0269)
World Champ. (-0.0029) Checker Play World Class (-0.0056)
Distracted (-0.1683) Cube Play Distracted (-0.0754)
5.81 Performance Rating 13.43

 65: 24/13 
Pip=167-167
 
1.playedBook124/13eq: -0.002
Player:
Opponent:		52.79% (G:11.70% B:0.51%)
47.21% (G:11.73% B:0.35%)
2.Book124/18 13/8eq: -0.072 (-0.070)
Player:
Opponent:		51.05% (G:12.76% B:0.62%)
48.95% (G:13.03% B:0.44%)
3.Book113/8 13/7eq: -0.169 (-0.167)
Player:
Opponent:		48.18% (G:13.96% B:0.72%)
51.82% (G:14.13% B:0.71%)
4.4-ply13/2eq: -0.241 (-0.239)
Player:
Opponent:		46.49% (G:13.04% B:0.65%)
53.51% (G:15.48% B:0.81%)
5.4-ply24/18 8/3eq: -0.279 (-0.278)
Player:
Opponent:		46.29% (G:11.41% B:0.52%)
53.71% (G:16.64% B:0.75%)
 
1 Generated by GameSite 2000, Ltd on 21-May-11 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00
Analyzed in XG Roller++
 41: 24/23 13/9 
Pip=156-167
 
1.xgXG Roller++13/9 6/5eq: -0.127
Player:
Opponent:		44.16% (G:11.13% B:0.35%)
55.84% (G:14.48% B:0.90%)
2.playedXG Roller++24/23 13/9eq: -0.130 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:		43.76% (G:10.88% B:0.31%)
56.24% (G:12.81% B:0.55%)
3.XG Roller++24/20 6/5eq: -0.159 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:		43.71% (G:10.21% B:0.32%)
56.29% (G:14.30% B:0.67%)
4.XG Roller++24/23 24/20eq: -0.172 (-0.045)
Player:
Opponent:		43.02% (G:9.22% B:0.25%)
56.98% (G:11.98% B:0.42%)
5.XG Roller++13/8eq: -0.183 (-0.056)
Player:
Opponent:		42.67% (G:10.09% B:0.27%)
57.33% (G:13.34% B:0.62%)
 44: 24/16* 6/2*(2)  
Pip=156-162
 
1.playedXG Roller++24/16* 6/2*(2) eq: +0.602
Player:
Opponent:		65.74% (G:21.31% B:1.21%)
34.26% (G:6.78% B:0.24%)
2.XG Roller++24/16* 13/9(2)eq: +0.573 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:		66.25% (G:17.32% B:0.91%)
33.75% (G:6.62% B:0.22%)
3.XG Roller++13/9(2) 6/2*(2) eq: +0.511 (-0.092)
Player:
Opponent:		64.24% (G:18.11% B:1.07%)
35.76% (G:7.06% B:0.24%)
4.XG Roller++8/4(2) 6/2*(2) eq: +0.505 (-0.097)
Player:
Opponent:		62.81% (G:23.12% B:1.17%)
37.19% (G:8.17% B:0.31%)
5.4-ply13/5(2)eq: +0.423 (-0.179)
Player:
Opponent:		62.93% (G:17.34% B:0.66%)
37.07% (G:7.93% B:0.24%)
 53: Bar/22 Bar/20 
Pip=140-180
 
1.played3-plyBar/22 Bar/20eq: -0.490
Player:
Opponent:		35.69% (G:7.23% B:0.24%)
64.31% (G:18.65% B:0.81%)
 Double/Take 
Pip=140-172
 
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 64.14% (G:18.37% B:0.94%) 64.10% (G:18.64% B:0.97%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 35.86% (G:7.48% B:0.23%) 35.90% (G:7.48% B:0.22%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.403 +0.775
Cubeful Equities
xg No double:+0.495
played Double/Take:+0.326 (-0.168)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.505)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 20.0%

Η θέση του Αυδή είναι καλή, αλλά όχι χωρίς προβλήματα: Η midpoint είναι βαριά φορτωμένη με 6 πούλια, υπάρχει ένα πούλι σε κίνδυνο, και το στρατόπεδό του δεν είναι ιδιαίτερα δυνατό και κυρίως είναι αρκετά ασύνδετο.
Αντίθετα, η θέση του Γρούτσου, όσο κι αν είναι χειρότερη, παραμένει πολύ υγιής: Δεν έχει κάψει πούλια, και είναι έτοιμος να βρει βολή ή να δέσει anchor.
Τέλος, το σκορ συνηγορεί επίσης υπέρ του να περιμένει κανείς.

 64: 16/6 
Pip=140-172
 
1.played4-ply16/6eq: +0.171
Player:
Opponent:		64.83% (G:16.21% B:0.53%)
35.17% (G:6.77% B:0.24%)
2.4-ply13/3* eq: -0.040 (-0.210)
Player:
Opponent:		58.31% (G:16.70% B:0.80%)
41.69% (G:10.04% B:0.33%)
3.4-ply16/10 13/9eq: -0.097 (-0.267)
Player:
Opponent:		56.46% (G:15.82% B:0.66%)
43.54% (G:9.97% B:0.36%)
4.3-ply16/10 6/2eq: -0.155 (-0.326)
Player:
Opponent:		55.18% (G:14.21% B:0.50%)
44.82% (G:10.83% B:0.34%)
5.3-ply16/10 8/4eq: -0.171 (-0.341)
Player:
Opponent:		55.20% (G:12.77% B:0.48%)
44.80% (G:10.87% B:0.40%)
 64: 24/20 13/7 
Pip=130-172
 
1.playedXG Roller++24/20 13/7eq: -0.183
Player:
Opponent:		33.42% (G:6.04% B:0.13%)
66.58% (G:11.72% B:0.22%)
2.XG Roller++22/16 20/16eq: -0.216 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:		34.31% (G:6.31% B:0.14%)
65.69% (G:18.91% B:0.30%)
3.XG Roller++24/20 8/2eq: -0.248 (-0.064)
Player:
Opponent:		31.71% (G:5.72% B:0.12%)
68.29% (G:13.39% B:0.33%)
4.XG Roller++8/2 6/2eq: -0.259 (-0.076)
Player:
Opponent:		33.01% (G:6.92% B:0.15%)
66.99% (G:20.17% B:0.92%)
5.XG Roller++24/18 22/18eq: -0.278 (-0.094)
Player:
Opponent:		31.00% (G:4.62% B:0.07%)
69.00% (G:13.06% B:0.15%)
 51: 13/8 2/1 
Pip=130-162
 
1.playedXG Roller++13/8 2/1eq: +0.102
Player:
Opponent:		64.21% (G:10.71% B:0.17%)
35.79% (G:7.06% B:0.21%)
2.XG Roller++8/3* 3/2eq: +0.067 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:		62.76% (G:12.45% B:0.28%)
37.24% (G:7.62% B:0.25%)
3.XG Roller++6/1 2/1eq: +0.046 (-0.056)
Player:
Opponent:		62.36% (G:11.90% B:0.21%)
37.64% (G:8.17% B:0.25%)
4.XG Roller++13/7eq: -0.005 (-0.108)
Player:
Opponent:		60.38% (G:12.00% B:0.40%)
39.62% (G:8.06% B:0.24%)
5.4-ply8/2eq: -0.053 (-0.156)
Player:
Opponent:		59.15% (G:10.87% B:0.20%)
40.85% (G:9.11% B:0.29%)
 54: 13/4 
Pip=124-162
 
1.XG Roller++13/9 8/3eq: -0.141
Player:
Opponent:		34.64% (G:6.92% B:0.14%)
65.36% (G:11.64% B:0.28%)
2.xgXG Roller++8/3 7/3eq: -0.141 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:		34.25% (G:6.74% B:0.12%)
65.75% (G:10.46% B:0.16%)
3.playedXG Roller++13/4eq: -0.144 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:		34.39% (G:6.55% B:0.13%)
65.61% (G:10.71% B:0.17%)
4.XG Roller++8/4 8/3eq: -0.153 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:		34.32% (G:6.78% B:0.13%)
65.68% (G:11.92% B:0.30%)
5.XG Roller++7/2 6/2eq: -0.165 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:		33.64% (G:6.52% B:0.10%)
66.36% (G:10.98% B:0.17%)
 41: 13/8 
Pip=124-153
 
1.playedXG Roller++13/8eq: +0.121
Player:
Opponent:		64.98% (G:9.17% B:0.15%)
35.02% (G:6.49% B:0.18%)
2.XG Roller++6/1eq: +0.106 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:		64.38% (G:10.10% B:0.16%)
35.62% (G:6.93% B:0.19%)
3.XG Roller++8/4 2/1eq: -0.005 (-0.126)
Player:
Opponent:		61.30% (G:10.79% B:0.26%)
38.70% (G:8.77% B:0.22%)
4.4-ply13/9 2/1eq: -0.090 (-0.211)
Player:
Opponent:		57.91% (G:12.17% B:0.33%)
42.09% (G:9.81% B:0.28%)
5.4-ply8/7 6/2eq: -0.128 (-0.250)
Player:
Opponent:		57.05% (G:12.30% B:0.39%)
42.95% (G:10.99% B:0.34%)
 52: 8/3 6/4 
Pip=119-153
 
1.playedXG Roller++8/3 6/4eq: -0.135
Player:
Opponent:		34.52% (G:6.63% B:0.11%)
65.48% (G:9.32% B:0.13%)
2.XG Roller++13/8 6/4eq: -0.172 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:		33.25% (G:6.04% B:0.11%)
66.75% (G:9.38% B:0.11%)
3.XG Roller++7/2 6/4eq: -0.181 (-0.045)
Player:
Opponent:		33.03% (G:6.08% B:0.09%)
66.97% (G:9.92% B:0.14%)
4.XG Roller++8/3 7/5eq: -0.194 (-0.059)
Player:
Opponent:		33.00% (G:6.34% B:0.12%)
67.00% (G:11.72% B:0.30%)
5.XG Roller++6/4 6/1eq: -0.210 (-0.074)
Player:
Opponent:		31.90% (G:6.03% B:0.07%)
68.10% (G:10.22% B:0.16%)
 11: 8/7(3) 2/1 
Pip=119-146
 
1.playedXG Roller++8/7(3) 2/1eq: +0.223
Player:
Opponent:		68.44% (G:7.95% B:0.11%)
31.56% (G:5.21% B:0.12%)
2.XG Roller++8/7(2) 8/6eq: +0.126 (-0.096)
Player:
Opponent:		65.06% (G:8.02% B:0.14%)
34.94% (G:6.53% B:0.17%)
3.4-ply8/6(2)eq: +0.004 (-0.219)
Player:
Opponent:		61.31% (G:7.43% B:0.11%)
38.69% (G:7.45% B:0.23%)
4.3-ply8/7 8/6 2/1eq: -0.245 (-0.468)
Player:
Opponent:		54.30% (G:11.27% B:0.33%)
45.70% (G:12.58% B:0.27%)
5.2-ply8/7(4)eq: -0.387 (-0.609)
Player:
Opponent:		49.93% (G:8.97% B:0.24%)
50.07% (G:16.10% B:0.35%)
 66: 22/10 8/2(2) 
Pip=115-146
 
1.xgXG Roller++13/7(2) 8/2(2)eq: -0.121
Player:
Opponent:		35.19% (G:4.53% B:0.05%)
64.81% (G:4.95% B:0.09%)
2.XG Roller++13/1(2)eq: -0.130 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:		34.73% (G:4.74% B:0.03%)
65.27% (G:4.93% B:0.10%)
3.playedXG Roller++22/10 8/2(2)eq: -0.153 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:		34.24% (G:1.03% B:0.01%)
65.76% (G:1.35% B:0.01%)
4.XG Roller++22/10 13/7(2)eq: -0.154 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:		34.21% (G:1.06% B:0.02%)
65.79% (G:1.35% B:0.02%)
5.XG Roller++22/4 8/2eq: -0.154 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:		34.21% (G:1.06% B:0.01%)
65.79% (G:1.45% B:0.02%)

Κι εγώ το ίδιο θα έπαιζα. Το XG είναι πολύ αυστηρό στον κανόνα ότι δεν τρέχουμε όταν είμαστε πίσω. Μετά τις 66 ο Γρούτσος είναι 7 pips πίσω και το 22/10 ελευθερώνει τις θέσεις 3 και 4 του Αυδή.


 31: 6/2 
Pip=115-122
 
1.xgXG Roller++7/3eq: +0.015
Player:
Opponent:		60.32% (G:1.42% B:0.02%)
39.68% (G:1.34% B:0.01%)
2.playedXG Roller++6/2eq: -0.003 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:		59.65% (G:1.47% B:0.02%)
40.35% (G:1.43% B:0.01%)
3.4-ply13/9eq: -0.149 (-0.164)
Player:
Opponent:		55.47% (G:4.96% B:0.23%)
44.53% (G:7.43% B:0.10%)
4.4-ply13/10 7/6eq: -0.220 (-0.235)
Player:
Opponent:		53.05% (G:5.41% B:0.28%)
46.95% (G:9.03% B:0.13%)
5.4-ply8/4eq: -0.264 (-0.279)
Player:
Opponent:		51.70% (G:4.61% B:0.24%)
48.30% (G:9.52% B:0.14%)
 42: 10/8 7/3 
Pip=111-122
 
1.xgXG Roller++13/11 13/9eq: -0.087
Player:
Opponent:		36.83% (G:1.20% B:0.01%)
63.17% (G:1.38% B:0.02%)
2.XG Roller++10/6 7/5eq: -0.093 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:		36.65% (G:1.29% B:0.01%)
63.35% (G:1.64% B:0.03%)
3.XG Roller++7/3 6/4eq: -0.094 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:		36.60% (G:1.20% B:0.01%)
63.40% (G:1.53% B:0.02%)
4.XG Roller++10/4eq: -0.096 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:		36.48% (G:1.22% B:0.01%)
63.52% (G:1.59% B:0.03%)
5.playedXG Roller++10/8 7/3eq: -0.097 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:		36.48% (G:1.23% B:0.01%)
63.52% (G:1.57% B:0.02%)
 32: 13/8 
Pip=111-116
 
1.playedXG Roller++13/8eq: -0.002
Player:
Opponent:		59.48% (G:1.45% B:0.02%)
40.52% (G:1.41% B:0.01%)
2.XG Roller++7/4 6/4eq: -0.010 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:		59.08% (G:1.75% B:0.03%)
40.92% (G:1.54% B:0.01%)
3.XG Roller++7/2eq: -0.029 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:		58.48% (G:1.41% B:0.03%)
41.52% (G:1.53% B:0.01%)
4.XG Roller++6/1eq: -0.131 (-0.129)
Player:
Opponent:		54.50% (G:2.07% B:0.03%)
45.50% (G:2.22% B:0.03%)
5.3-ply8/6 7/4eq: -0.385 (-0.383)
Player:
Opponent:		47.06% (G:2.95% B:0.06%)
52.94% (G:11.92% B:0.15%)
 64: 13/9 13/7 
Pip=106-116
 
1.playedXG Roller++13/9 13/7eq: +0.026
Player:
Opponent:		41.54% (G:1.64% B:0.02%)
58.46% (G:1.62% B:0.03%)
2.XG Roller++20/10eq: -0.017 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:		40.37% (G:1.79% B:0.02%)
59.63% (G:3.06% B:0.04%)
3.XG Roller++8/2 6/2eq: -0.038 (-0.064)
Player:
Opponent:		39.14% (G:1.34% B:0.01%)
60.86% (G:2.20% B:0.04%)
4.XG Roller++20/16 20/14eq: -0.064 (-0.090)
Player:
Opponent:		38.87% (G:3.54% B:0.06%)
61.13% (G:6.62% B:0.10%)
5.XG Roller++13/7 8/4eq: -0.069 (-0.095)
Player:
Opponent:		37.57% (G:2.27% B:0.02%)
62.43% (G:2.49% B:0.05%)
 52: 8/6 7/2 
Pip=106-106
 
1.xgXG Roller++13/6eq: -0.064
Player:
Opponent:		56.41% (G:1.56% B:0.03%)
43.59% (G:1.83% B:0.02%)
2.XG Roller++7/2 6/4eq: -0.064 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:		56.28% (G:1.88% B:0.08%)
43.72% (G:2.02% B:0.02%)
3.XG Roller++13/8 6/4eq: -0.070 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:		56.11% (G:2.31% B:0.08%)
43.89% (G:2.38% B:0.05%)
4.playedXG Roller++8/6 7/2eq: -0.082 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:		55.65% (G:1.71% B:0.05%)
44.35% (G:1.99% B:0.02%)
5.XG Roller++8/3 6/4eq: -0.101 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:		54.81% (G:2.03% B:0.06%)
45.19% (G:1.92% B:0.04%)
 65: 7/1 6/1 
Pip=99-106
 
1.playedXG Roller++7/1 6/1eq: +0.090
Player:
Opponent:		44.83% (G:2.49% B:0.03%)
55.17% (G:2.01% B:0.04%)
2.XG Roller++8/2 6/1eq: +0.070 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:		44.12% (G:2.23% B:0.02%)
55.88% (G:2.37% B:0.05%)
3.XG Roller++9/3 6/1eq: +0.065 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:		43.98% (G:2.13% B:0.02%)
56.02% (G:2.24% B:0.06%)
4.XG Roller++8/3 7/1eq: +0.051 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:		43.41% (G:2.31% B:0.02%)
56.59% (G:2.42% B:0.06%)
5.XG Roller++9/4 7/1eq: +0.050 (-0.040)
Player:
Opponent:		43.36% (G:2.19% B:0.02%)
56.64% (G:2.30% B:0.05%)
 54: 13/4 
Pip=99-95
 
1.playedXG Roller++13/4eq: -0.044
Player:
Opponent:		56.33% (G:2.06% B:0.04%)
43.67% (G:2.04% B:0.02%)
2.XG Roller++8/4 8/3eq: -0.105 (-0.062)
Player:
Opponent:		54.09% (G:2.34% B:0.06%)
45.91% (G:2.30% B:0.03%)
3.XG Roller++13/8 6/2eq: -0.137 (-0.093)
Player:
Opponent:		52.97% (G:1.49% B:0.03%)
47.03% (G:2.28% B:0.03%)
4.XG Roller++7/3 7/2eq: -0.182 (-0.138)
Player:
Opponent:		51.49% (G:1.67% B:0.03%)
48.51% (G:2.69% B:0.03%)
5.4-ply6/2 6/1eq: -0.293 (-0.249)
Player:
Opponent:		48.01% (G:0.89% B:0.01%)
51.99% (G:2.89% B:0.02%)
 22: 9/5 8/4 
Pip=90-95
 
1.playedXG Roller++9/5 8/4eq: -0.023
Player:
Opponent:		40.89% (G:2.26% B:0.03%)
59.11% (G:2.44% B:0.05%)
2.XG Roller++9/5 6/2eq: -0.030 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:		40.67% (G:1.90% B:0.02%)
59.33% (G:2.63% B:0.07%)
3.XG Roller++9/7 8/2eq: -0.035 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:		40.32% (G:1.43% B:0.02%)
59.68% (G:2.21% B:0.04%)
4.XG Roller++9/7 8/4 6/4eq: -0.038 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:		40.07% (G:1.32% B:0.01%)
59.93% (G:2.24% B:0.05%)
5.XG Roller++9/3 6/4eq: -0.039 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:		40.03% (G:1.28% B:0.01%)
59.97% (G:2.24% B:0.04%)
 42: 6/4 6/2 
Pip=90-87
 
1.xgXG Roller++8/6 8/4eq: -0.016
Player:
Opponent:		56.70% (G:2.50% B:0.05%)
43.30% (G:2.05% B:0.03%)
2.playedXG Roller++6/4 6/2eq: -0.032 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:		56.20% (G:2.26% B:0.04%)
43.80% (G:2.18% B:0.03%)
3.XG Roller++13/7eq: -0.163 (-0.147)
Player:
Opponent:		50.49% (G:2.23% B:0.05%)
49.51% (G:3.54% B:0.05%)
4.4-ply6/2 4/2eq: -0.223 (-0.207)
Player:
Opponent:		49.92% (G:1.32% B:0.02%)
50.08% (G:2.39% B:0.02%)
5.4-ply7/3 6/4eq: -0.254 (-0.238)
Player:
Opponent:		48.15% (G:4.95% B:0.14%)
51.85% (G:10.08% B:0.09%)
 54: 20/11 
Pip=84-87
 
1.playedXG Roller++20/11eq: +0.063
Player:
Opponent:		43.95% (G:4.41% B:0.04%)
56.05% (G:1.49% B:0.03%)
2.XG Roller++6/1 5/1eq: -0.052 (-0.114)
Player:
Opponent:		39.99% (G:1.39% B:0.01%)
60.01% (G:2.52% B:0.04%)
3.4-ply6/2 6/1eq: -0.077 (-0.139)
Player:
Opponent:		38.30% (G:0.94% B:0.00%)
61.70% (G:2.89% B:0.07%)
4.4-ply20/15 5/1eq: -0.209 (-0.271)
Player:
Opponent:		34.16% (G:2.48% B:0.02%)
65.84% (G:6.94% B:0.12%)
5.4-ply20/16 20/15eq: -0.213 (-0.275)
Player:
Opponent:		34.23% (G:1.85% B:0.02%)
65.77% (G:7.19% B:0.13%)

Πολύ σωστό παίξιμο. Ο Γρούτσος δεν έχει την πολυτέλεια να χαλάσει το στρατόπεδό του, αφού και θα μείνει πίσω στην κούρσα (στην οποία έχει πολύ καλές τύχες μετά το τρέξιμο) λόγω των καμένων πουλίων που θα έχει, και πιθανά χτυπήματά του δεν θα είναι πλεόν καθοριστικά.

 63: 8/2 8/5*  
Pip=84-78
 
1.playedXG Roller++8/2 8/5* eq: -0.238
Player:
Opponent:		48.31% (G:1.34% B:0.02%)
51.69% (G:9.94% B:0.06%)
2.XG Roller++13/4eq: -0.293 (-0.055)
Player:
Opponent:		44.98% (G:0.84% B:0.02%)
55.02% (G:2.07% B:0.02%)
3.XG Roller++13/7 8/5* eq: -0.329 (-0.091)
Player:
Opponent:		51.59% (G:1.90% B:0.03%)
48.41% (G:18.61% B:0.60%)
4.XG Roller++7/4 7/1eq: -0.384 (-0.146)
Player:
Opponent:		43.15% (G:0.23% B:0.00%)
56.85% (G:2.47% B:0.03%)
5.4-ply13/7 4/1eq: -0.568 (-0.330)
Player:
Opponent:		37.25% (G:0.48% B:0.01%)
62.75% (G:3.21% B:0.03%)

Σωστό χτύπημα.
Πρώτα απ' όλα να ξεκαθαρίσουμε ότι το "απολύτως" ασφαλές 7/1 7/4 καταστρέφει την κούρσα καίγοντας πούλια και δεν είναι και τόσο ασφαλές, αφού στην επόμενη ζαριά μπορεί να αφήσει άμεση βολή.
Μετά από 13/4 η κούρσα είναι στην ουσία ίση (μάλιστα ο Αυδής είναι περισσότερο καμένος) και  ο Γρούτσος έχει επίσης 5 έμμεσες βολές.
Οπότε το χτύπημα είναι υποχρεωτικό, αφού οι γκέλες ισοδυναμούν με σχεδόν σίγουρη νίκη, αφήνοντας έτσι τον αντίπαλο με λιγότερες νίκες από όσες στην ίση κούρσα με έξτρα βολές.
Όσο για το έξι, το 13/7 παραείναι ριψοκίνδυνο, οπότε 8/2.

 No double 
Pip=75-83
 
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 51.68% (G:10.04% B:0.05%) 51.55% (G:10.12% B:0.05%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 48.32% (G:1.22% B:0.02%) 48.45% (G:1.27% B:0.02%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.134 +0.401
Cubeful Equities
played No redouble:+0.243
     Redouble/Take:+0.234 (-0.009)
     Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.757)
 
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 1.2%
 43: Bar/22 11/7 
Pip=75-83
 
1.playedXG Roller++Bar/22 11/7eq: +0.012
Player:
Opponent:		42.40% (G:2.14% B:0.03%)
57.60% (G:0.68% B:0.01%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/22 6/2eq: -0.034 (-0.046)
Player:
Opponent:		41.15% (G:2.09% B:0.03%)
58.85% (G:1.14% B:0.02%)
3.XG Roller++Bar/22 5/1eq: -0.050 (-0.062)
Player:
Opponent:		40.43% (G:1.62% B:0.02%)
59.57% (G:0.76% B:0.01%)
 61: 13/7 5/4 
Pip=75-76
 
1.played3-ply13/7 5/4eq: -0.092
Player:
Opponent:		54.62% (G:0.39% B:0.01%)
45.38% (G:0.86% B:0.00%)
2.3-ply13/6eq: -0.453 (-0.361)
Player:
Opponent:		42.54% (G:1.14% B:0.02%)
57.46% (G:7.82% B:0.08%)
3.3-ply7/6 7/1eq: -0.530 (-0.438)
Player:
Opponent:		39.62% (G:0.74% B:0.01%)
60.38% (G:6.08% B:0.03%)
4.3-ply7/1 5/4eq: -0.607 (-0.515)
Player:
Opponent:		38.32% (G:0.53% B:0.01%)
61.68% (G:6.80% B:0.03%)
5.3-ply13/7 2/1eq: -0.629 (-0.537)
Player:
Opponent:		39.94% (G:1.15% B:0.02%)
60.06% (G:10.12% B:0.10%)
 51: 7/2 6/5 
Pip=68-76
 
1.xgXG Roller++22/17 6/5eq: -0.004
Player:
Opponent:		40.49% (G:0.53% B:0.01%)
59.51% (G:0.14% B:0.00%)
2.playedXG Roller++7/2 6/5eq: -0.047 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:		40.34% (G:0.60% B:0.01%)
59.66% (G:0.16% B:0.00%)
3.XG Roller++22/17 7/6eq: -0.070 (-0.065)
Player:
Opponent:		38.38% (G:0.31% B:0.00%)
61.62% (G:0.18% B:0.00%)
4.XG Roller++22/17 4/3eq: -0.103 (-0.099)
Player:
Opponent:		37.17% (G:0.39% B:0.00%)
62.83% (G:0.31% B:0.00%)
5.XG Roller++22/16eq: -0.111 (-0.107)
Player:
Opponent:		36.77% (G:0.29% B:0.00%)
63.23% (G:0.34% B:0.00%)

Τα επιχειρήματα υπέρ του 22/17 είναι τα εξής:
α) Δεν καίει πούλι, οπότε δεν βλάπτει την κούρσα.
β) Αυτό το αστείο τρίπορτο μπροστά στο πούλι μπορεί να αποδειχτεί πιο ενοχλητικό απ' όσο φαίνεται για την κούρσα (33, 43, 44 κλπ.).
γ) Το 22/17 έχει και τα τυχερά του αν ο αντίπαλος δεν μπορέσει να τρέξει (11, 21, 31) και
δ) το κυριότερο, αποφεύγει αρκετές ζαριές που κάνουν πόρτα πάνω του ή χτυπάνε en passant (11, 44, 33, 42, 22, 21).
Αξίζουν όλα τα παραπάνω τις 15 βολές που αφήνει το 22/17; Ναι, όταν η κούρσα είναι τόσο κοντά.

Τέλος, ο άσος είναι ξεκάθαρος 6/5, λόγω του ότι από το 17 ελέγχουμε καλύτερα, ενώ οι  βολές που δίνουμε είναι όσες και από το 16.

 65: 13/2 
Pip=68-70
 
1.played3-ply13/2eq: +0.070
Player:
Opponent:		61.37% (G:0.07% B:0.00%)
38.63% (G:0.09% B:0.00%)
2.3-ply13/8 7/1eq: -0.327 (-0.397)
Player:
Opponent:		42.27% (G:0.12% B:0.00%)
57.73% (G:2.24% B:0.02%)
3.3-ply7/2 7/1eq: -0.618 (-0.688)
Player:
Opponent:		39.86% (G:0.08% B:0.00%)
60.14% (G:9.26% B:0.21%)
4.2-ply13/7 6/1eq: -0.736 (-0.806)
Player:
Opponent:		34.52% (G:0.02% B:0.00%)
65.48% (G:4.65% B:0.03%)
5.2-ply7/1 6/1eq: -1.000 (-1.070)
Player:
Opponent:		31.66% (G:0.07% B:0.00%)
68.34% (G:12.29% B:0.15%)
 66: 22/4 6/Off 
Pip=57-70
 
1.played3-ply22/4 6/Offeq: +0.969
Player:
Opponent:		84.98% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
15.02% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
 44: 7/3(3) 4/Off 
Pip=57-46
 
1.playedXG Roller++7/3(3) 4/Offeq: -0.598
Player:
Opponent:		35.38% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
64.62% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.XG Roller++7/3(3) 6/2eq: -0.841 (-0.243)
Player:
Opponent:		29.17% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
70.83% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3.XG Roller++7/3(2) 6/2(2)eq: -1.000 (-0.402)
Player:
Opponent:		25.11% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
74.89% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
 No double 
Pip=41-46
 
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 64.64% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 64.65% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 35.36% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 35.35% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.293 +0.678
Cubeful Equities
played No redouble:+0.597
     Redouble/Take:+0.570 (-0.027)
     Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.403)
 
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 6.0%

Σ' αυτές τις θέσεις ο υπολοιπόμενος στο σκορ πρέπει να προσέξει πολύ να μην χάσει το market. Θέλει οπωσδήποτε να παίξει με πλεονέκτημα για 4 πόντους, επειδή αυτό είναι μια μεγάλη ευκαιρία για να κλείσει την ψαλίδα του σκορ.
Εδώ ο Γρούτσος φαίνεται να είναι 5 pips πίσω, αλλά ο Αυδής έχει αρκετά καμένα και μία τρύπα στο 5.
Η μέθοδος που χρησιμοποιώ (Isight) δίνει 62,6%, οπότε No Double / Take. Πάντως δεν πρέπει να είναι μακριά.


 64: 6/Off 4/Off 
Pip=41-46
 
1.played4-ply6/Off 4/Offeq: +0.800
Player:
Opponent:		70.04% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
29.96% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.4-ply6/Off 5/1eq: +0.379 (-0.421)
Player:
Opponent:		56.33% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
43.67% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3.3-ply6/2 5/Offeq: +0.315 (-0.485)
Player:
Opponent:		54.99% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
45.01% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
 42: 4/Off 2/Off 
Pip=41-36
 
1.played4-ply4/Off 2/Offeq: -0.977
Player:
Opponent:		26.08% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
73.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.4-ply6/Offeq: -1.000 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:		20.76% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
79.24% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3.4-ply4/Off 3/1eq: -1.000 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:		16.41% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
83.59% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
4.4-ply4/2 4/Offeq: -1.000 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:		14.88% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
85.12% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
5.4-ply6/4 6/2eq: -1.000 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:		17.65% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
82.35% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
 No double 
Pip=35-36
 
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 73.91% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 73.91% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 26.09% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 26.09% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.478 +1.055
Cubeful Equities
played No redouble:+0.821 (-0.163)
xg Redouble/Take:+0.984
     Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.016)
 
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

Isight: 67,7%
Κανονικά αυτό δεν θα αρκούσε για Redouble, αλλά το σκορ φωνάζει βίδο εδώ.

 22: 4/Off 2/Off(2) 
Pip=35-36
 
1.played4-ply4/Off 2/Off(2)eq: +0.914
Player:
Opponent:		80.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
19.14% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.4-ply5/3 2/Off(3)eq: +0.903 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:		78.39% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
21.61% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3.4-ply5/3 4/Off 2/Offeq: +0.892 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:		76.71% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
23.29% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
4.4-ply3/1 2/Off(3)eq: +0.882 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:		76.05% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
23.95% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
5.4-ply4/Off(2)eq: +0.872 (-0.042)
Player:
Opponent:		75.29% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
24.71% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
 33: 6/Off 3/Off(2) 
Pip=35-28
 
1.played4-ply6/Off 3/Off(2)eq: -0.566
Player:
Opponent:		36.45% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
63.55% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.4-ply6/Off(2)eq: -0.664 (-0.098)
Player:
Opponent:		33.30% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
66.70% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3.4-ply6/3 6/Off 4/1eq: -1.000 (-0.434)
Player:
Opponent:		13.03% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
86.97% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
4.3-ply4/1 3/Off(3)eq: -1.000 (-0.434)
Player:
Opponent:		25.01% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
74.99% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
5.3-ply6/Off 4/1 3/Offeq: -1.000 (-0.434)
Player:
Opponent:		22.41% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
77.59% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
 No double 
Pip=23-28
 
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 63.55% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 63.55% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 36.45% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 36.45% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.271 +0.634
Cubeful Equities
played No redouble:+0.597
     Redouble/Take:+0.565 (-0.032)
     Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.403)
 
Best Cube action: No redouble / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 6.9%

Isight: 64,7%
Κανονικά No Redouble, αλλά εδώ, λόγω σκορ, είναι οριακό.

 62: 5/Off 2/Off 
Pip=23-28
 
1.played4-ply5/Off 2/Offeq: +0.570
Player:
Opponent:		61.99% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
38.01% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.4-ply5/Off 4/2eq: +0.468 (-0.102)
Player:
Opponent:		59.04% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
40.96% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3.4-ply5/3 5/Offeq: +0.306 (-0.263)
Player:
Opponent:		54.08% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
45.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
4.4-ply5/Off 3/1eq: +0.260 (-0.310)
Player:
Opponent:		52.14% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
47.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
 32: 3/Off 2/Off 
Pip=23-21
 
1.played4-ply3/Off 2/Offeq: -0.800
Player:
Opponent:		30.28% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
69.72% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.4-ply6/3 2/Offeq: -0.888 (-0.088)
Player:
Opponent:		28.20% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
71.80% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3.4-ply6/4 3/Offeq: -1.000 (-0.200)
Player:
Opponent:		23.22% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
76.78% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
4.4-ply4/1 2/Offeq: -1.000 (-0.200)
Player:
Opponent:		17.47% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
82.53% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
5.4-ply4/2 3/Offeq: -1.000 (-0.200)
Player:
Opponent:		17.09% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
82.91% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
 No double 
Pip=18-21
 
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 69.72% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 69.72% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 30.28% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 30.28% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.394 +0.885
Cubeful Equities
played No redouble:+0.731 (-0.102)
xg Redouble/Take:+0.833
     Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.167)
 
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

Isight: 69%

Redouble / Take, λόγω σκορ.


 41: 4/Off 1/Off 
Pip=18-21
 
1.played4-ply4/Off 1/Offeq: +0.698
Player:
Opponent:		65.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
35.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.4-ply4/Off 3/2eq: +0.496 (-0.202)
Player:
Opponent:		59.67% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
40.33% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3.4-ply5/1 3/2eq: -0.399 (-1.098)
Player:
Opponent:		25.81% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
74.19% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
4.3-ply5/Offeq: +0.060 (-0.638)
Player:
Opponent:		46.57% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
53.43% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
5.2-ply4/3 4/Offeq: -0.031 (-0.730)
Player:
Opponent:		41.33% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
58.67% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
 51: 6/Off 
Pip=18-16
 
1.played4-ply6/Offeq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:		25.55% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
74.45% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.4-ply6/1 2/1eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:		7.60% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
92.40% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3.4-ply6/1 4/3eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:		7.51% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
92.49% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
 No double 
Pip=12-16
 
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No redouble Redouble/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 74.45% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 74.45% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 25.55% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 25.55% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.489 +1.077
Cubeful Equities
played No redouble:+0.737 (-0.263)
     Redouble/Take:+1.061 (+0.061)
xg Redouble/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Redouble / Pass

Isight: 73%

Εδώ το Redouble παραείναι σαφές. Το πούλι που έσπασε ο Αυδής στην τελευταία ζαριά στην ουσία του δίνει πάσο λόγω σκορ.
Δεν ξέρω τι φοβήθηκε ο Χρίστος και άφησε τη μεγάλη ευκαιρία να πετάξει, αλλά εδώ δεν χωράει ούτε σκέψη για προσαρμογή λόγω διαφοράς δυναμικότητας.


 55: 5/Off 4/Off 3/Off(2) 
Pip=12-16
 
1.played3-ply5/Off 4/Off 3/Off(2)eq: +1.000
Player:
Opponent:		100.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
 21: 2/Off 1/Off 
Pip=12-1
 
1.played4-ply2/Off 1/Offeq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:		0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
2.4-ply4/3 2/Offeq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:		0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3.4-ply4/2 1/Offeq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:		0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
4.4-ply2/1 2/Offeq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:		0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
5.4-ply4/1eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:		0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
100.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
 21: 1/Off 
Pip=9-1
 
1.played3-ply1/Offeq: +1.000
Player:
Opponent:		100.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
0.00% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
 Wins a Single Game 2pts. 
 

Game Summary:

Avdis  Category Groutsos 
0
-0.052(-0.43%)		 Move Errors
Equity lost (cost)		 2
-0.090(-0.73%)
1(1)
-0.168(-0.69%)		 Double Errors
Equity lost (cost)		 3(3)
-0.528(-4.32%)
0
+0.000		 Take Errors
Equity lost (cost)		 0
+0.000
0 Outplays 0
1(1)
-0.221(-1.11%)		 Total Error
Equity lost (cost)		 5(3)
-0.618(-5.05%)
3
-1.196(-12.11%)		 Joker
Luck		 2
+1.196(+12.11%)
Expert
5.81		 Level of Play
Performance Rating		 Intermediate
13.43
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on 25-Jun-18 5:38:41 PM