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13 point match, Score is mman: 9, Iskandar: 11

Quick Summary:

mman  Category Iskandar 
Advanced (-0.0169) Total Error Expert (-0.0142)
Advanced (-0.0163) Checker Play Advanced (-0.0152)
Advanced (-0.0225) Cube Play Expert (-0.0131)
8.43 Performance Rating 7.08

 51: 13/8 6/5 
Pip=167-167
 
1.playedBook113/8 6/5eq: +0.355
Player:
Opponent:		49.89% (G:14.16% B:1.24%)
50.11% (G:15.56% B:2.21%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.352...+0.358) - [100.0%]
2.Book124/23 13/8eq: +0.333 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:		50.13% (G:13.70% B:1.01%)
49.87% (G:14.19% B:1.53%)		Conf.: ± 0.003 (+0.330...+0.336) - [0.0%]
3.Book213/7eq: +0.235 (-0.119)
Player:
Opponent:		47.64% (G:13.24% B:0.59%)
52.36% (G:14.64% B:0.80%)
4.Book224/18eq: +0.234 (-0.121)
Player:
Opponent:		49.41% (G:11.37% B:0.43%)
50.59% (G:13.07% B:0.49%)
5.4-ply24/23 8/3eq: +0.097 (-0.258)
Player:
Opponent:		45.72% (G:12.13% B:0.52%)
54.28% (G:16.25% B:0.77%)
 
1 Generated by Steven Carey on 06-Aug-12 using eXtreme Gammon 2.10
46656 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 98044190
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: 4-ply

2 Generated by GameSite 2000, Ltd on 21-May-11 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00
Analyzed in XG Roller++

Λόγω σκορ, θέλω να μεγιστοποιήσω τα διπλά, οπότε το 6/5 γίνεται θεματικό.

 21: 13/11 6/5 
Pip=161-167
 
1.playedXG Roller++13/11 6/5eq: -0.626
Player:
Opponent:		45.11% (G:12.05% B:0.52%)
54.89% (G:17.21% B:1.13%)
2.XG Roller++24/23 13/11eq: -0.637 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:		44.66% (G:11.50% B:0.51%)
55.34% (G:16.84% B:0.68%)
3.XG Roller++24/21eq: -0.654 (-0.028)
Player:
Opponent:		44.42% (G:10.63% B:0.48%)
55.58% (G:17.06% B:0.66%)
4.XG Roller++13/10eq: -0.673 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:		43.77% (G:11.79% B:0.52%)
56.23% (G:16.87% B:0.93%)
5.XG Roller++24/23 24/22eq: -0.695 (-0.069)
Player:
Opponent:		43.66% (G:10.52% B:0.48%)
56.34% (G:17.11% B:0.60%)
 No double 
Pip=161-164
 
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 54.76% (G:17.18% B:1.09%) 54.88% (G:17.15% B:1.13%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 45.24% (G:12.11% B:0.51%) 45.12% (G:12.30% B:0.55%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.063 +0.624
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.579 (-0.045)
xg Double/Take:+0.624
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.376)
 
Best Cube action: Double / Take

Γνώριζα ότι εδώ πιθανόν να είχα βίδο, αλλά δεν ήθελα να δεσμευτώ ακόμα, κυρίως για λόγους διαφοράς δυναμικότητας.

 65: 24/13 
Pip=161-164
 
1.playedXG Roller++24/13eq: +0.198
Player:
Opponent:		48.45% (G:11.09% B:0.48%)
51.55% (G:14.65% B:0.51%)
2.XG Roller++24/18 13/8eq: +0.052 (-0.146)
Player:
Opponent:		44.20% (G:11.41% B:0.60%)
55.80% (G:18.67% B:0.90%)
3.4-ply13/8 13/7eq: -0.058 (-0.256)
Player:
Opponent:		41.36% (G:11.53% B:0.57%)
58.64% (G:18.81% B:1.37%)
4.4-ply13/2eq: -0.094 (-0.291)
Player:
Opponent:		40.65% (G:11.42% B:0.54%)
59.35% (G:19.16% B:1.36%)
5.4-ply24/18 8/3eq: -0.121 (-0.318)
Player:
Opponent:		41.34% (G:10.34% B:0.56%)
58.66% (G:23.09% B:1.57%)
 44: 24/20*(2) 13/5 
Pip=150-164
 
1.playedXG Roller++24/20*(2) 13/5eq: +0.551
Player:
Opponent:		67.16% (G:21.44% B:0.79%)
32.84% (G:5.04% B:0.16%)
2.XG Roller++24/20* 20/16 13/5eq: +0.407 (-0.145)
Player:
Opponent:		64.92% (G:20.47% B:1.06%)
35.08% (G:7.27% B:0.30%)
3.4-ply24/20* 13/9 13/5eq: +0.335 (-0.216)
Player:
Opponent:		62.69% (G:22.41% B:1.16%)
37.31% (G:7.58% B:0.34%)
4.4-ply24/20* 13/5 11/7eq: +0.316 (-0.235)
Player:
Opponent:		62.28% (G:21.11% B:0.89%)
37.72% (G:7.49% B:0.29%)
5.3-ply24/20* 13/5 8/4eq: +0.177 (-0.374)
Player:
Opponent:		59.66% (G:21.47% B:1.03%)
40.34% (G:8.99% B:0.41%)
 41: Bar/21 24/23 
Pip=170-148
 
1.xgXG Roller++Bar/21 8/7eq: -0.515
Player:
Opponent:		32.79% (G:5.03% B:0.17%)
67.21% (G:23.23% B:0.90%)
2.playedXG Roller++Bar/21 24/23eq: -0.544 (-0.029)
Player:
Opponent:		31.83% (G:4.71% B:0.14%)
68.17% (G:21.37% B:0.67%)
3.XG Roller++Bar/24 8/4eq: -0.563 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent:		31.05% (G:4.70% B:0.15%)
68.95% (G:21.28% B:0.96%)
4.XG Roller++Bar/24 13/9eq: -0.588 (-0.073)
Player:
Opponent:		30.35% (G:4.62% B:0.15%)
69.65% (G:21.91% B:1.16%)
5.4-plyBar/24 6/2eq: -0.670 (-0.155)
Player:
Opponent:		27.95% (G:4.09% B:0.09%)
72.05% (G:20.70% B:1.16%)
 61: 13/7 8/7 
Pip=165-148
 
1.playedXG Roller++13/7 8/7eq: +0.600
Player:
Opponent:		68.50% (G:20.53% B:0.67%)
31.50% (G:4.71% B:0.16%)
2.XG Roller++11/5 6/5eq: +0.467 (-0.133)
Player:
Opponent:		64.86% (G:19.38% B:0.59%)
35.14% (G:5.18% B:0.17%)
3.XG Roller++11/4* eq: +0.446 (-0.154)
Player:
Opponent:		64.16% (G:21.36% B:0.65%)
35.84% (G:5.52% B:0.17%)
4.4-ply13/6eq: +0.374 (-0.226)
Player:
Opponent:		63.06% (G:17.07% B:0.49%)
36.94% (G:5.12% B:0.16%)
5.4-ply8/2* 6/5eq: +0.368 (-0.232)
Player:
Opponent:		62.73% (G:18.17% B:0.53%)
37.27% (G:5.65% B:0.17%)
 65: 21/10 
Pip=165-141
 
1.XG Roller++21/16 13/7eq: -0.725
Player:
Opponent:		27.92% (G:4.32% B:0.15%)
72.08% (G:28.91% B:1.12%)
2.xgXG Roller++13/8 13/7eq: -0.731 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:		27.65% (G:4.23% B:0.15%)
72.35% (G:27.05% B:1.09%)
3.XG Roller++13/7 8/3eq: -0.736 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:		27.87% (G:4.37% B:0.16%)
72.13% (G:29.15% B:1.48%)
4.playedXG Roller++21/10eq: -0.738 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:		27.10% (G:3.93% B:0.13%)
72.90% (G:27.14% B:0.61%)
5.XG Roller++13/2eq: -0.758 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:		26.91% (G:4.25% B:0.13%)
73.09% (G:27.43% B:0.86%)
 42: 11/7 6/4 
Pip=154-141
 
1.XG Roller++11/5eq: +0.641
Player:
Opponent:		68.30% (G:26.19% B:0.41%)
31.70% (G:4.22% B:0.16%)
2.xgXG Roller++13/9 11/9eq: +0.635 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:		68.71% (G:25.80% B:0.63%)
31.29% (G:4.98% B:0.20%)
3.XG Roller++13/11 13/9eq: +0.615 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:		67.65% (G:25.84% B:0.46%)
32.35% (G:4.30% B:0.16%)
4.XG Roller++8/4 6/4eq: +0.597 (-0.044)
Player:
Opponent:		66.12% (G:28.52% B:0.42%)
33.88% (G:4.53% B:0.16%)
5.XG Roller++13/7eq: +0.561 (-0.080)
Player:
Opponent:		66.47% (G:24.30% B:0.48%)
33.53% (G:4.57% B:0.17%)
6.playedXG Roller++11/7 6/4eq: +0.514 (-0.127)
Player:
Opponent:		65.33% (G:24.48% B:0.48%)
34.67% (G:5.20% B:0.20%)

Αν ο Μίμης ήθελε να αφήσει βολή (όχι απαραίτητο), τότε το 13/9 11/9 κάνει πεντάπορτο, ενώ το παίξιμό του απλώς σλοτάρει.

 51: 10/4 
Pip=154-135
 
1.playedXG Roller++10/4eq: -0.782
Player:
Opponent:		27.11% (G:4.03% B:0.13%)
72.89% (G:32.95% B:0.53%)
2.XG Roller++23/22 13/8eq: -0.789 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:		27.27% (G:3.82% B:0.12%)
72.73% (G:33.27% B:0.61%)
3.XG Roller++23/22 8/3eq: -0.814 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:		26.81% (G:4.02% B:0.15%)
73.19% (G:35.69% B:0.83%)
4.XG Roller++13/8 10/9eq: -0.815 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:		26.20% (G:3.75% B:0.12%)
73.80% (G:32.28% B:0.55%)
5.XG Roller++13/7eq: -0.815 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:		26.61% (G:4.16% B:0.16%)
73.39% (G:34.81% B:0.97%)

Ενδιαφέρον το πόσο κοντά είναι οι δύο διαφορετικές προσεγγίσεις.

 42: 13/9 6/4 
Pip=148-135
 
1.playedXG Roller++13/9 6/4eq: +0.862
Player:
Opponent:		73.71% (G:31.63% B:0.72%)
26.29% (G:4.13% B:0.17%)
2.XG Roller++7/3 6/4eq: +0.723 (-0.139)
Player:
Opponent:		70.17% (G:30.06% B:0.56%)
29.83% (G:4.80% B:0.19%)
3.XG Roller++20/16 6/4eq: +0.708 (-0.153)
Player:
Opponent:		72.69% (G:24.33% B:0.74%)
27.31% (G:5.83% B:0.22%)
4.4-ply6/2* 4/2eq: +0.687 (-0.175)
Player:
Opponent:		69.67% (G:27.66% B:0.25%)
30.33% (G:3.78% B:0.14%)
5.4-ply8/6 8/4eq: +0.639 (-0.223)
Player:
Opponent:		68.42% (G:24.76% B:0.22%)
31.58% (G:3.40% B:0.11%)
 64: 8/4 8/2 
Pip=148-129
 
1.xgXG Roller++13/7 8/4eq: -0.892
Player:
Opponent:		23.71% (G:3.78% B:0.15%)
76.29% (G:31.99% B:0.66%)
2.XG Roller++13/3eq: -0.968 (-0.076)
Player:
Opponent:		21.48% (G:3.61% B:0.14%)
78.52% (G:33.35% B:0.61%)
3.playedXG Roller++8/4 8/2eq: -0.987 (-0.095)
Player:
Opponent:		21.24% (G:3.47% B:0.13%)
78.76% (G:34.01% B:0.64%)
4.XG Roller++8/2 6/2eq: -1.006 (-0.114)
Player:
Opponent:		20.84% (G:3.27% B:0.12%)
79.16% (G:34.24% B:0.59%)
5.XG Roller++13/9 13/7eq: -1.090 (-0.198)
Player:
Opponent:		21.15% (G:3.51% B:0.21%)
78.85% (G:43.78% B:2.34%)

Το σκεπτικό του 137/ είναι βέβαια να φτιαξει την πόρτα, αλλά κυρίως να επιτεθεί στο blot που θα μείνει στο 5, ώστε να αναγκάσει τον αντίπαλο να σπάσει το prime του. Επίσης, όταν ο αντίπαλος θα λύσει, εγώ θα πρέπει να επιτεθώ στο 5, και τότε δεν θέλω να έχω ευάλωτα blot βαθιά στο στρατόπεδό μου.
Αυτό που έχει ενδιαφέρον είναι ότι το 13/7 χάνει λιγότερα διπλά, ίσως λόγω του πιθανού δεσίματος μιας anchor.

 No double 
Pip=138-129
 
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 78.19% (G:35.81% B:0.78%) 79.37% (G:31.45% B:1.32%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 21.81% (G:3.60% B:0.14%) 20.63% (G:3.27% B:0.13%)
  Cubeless Equities +1.147 +1.616
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.996
     Double/Take:+0.807 (-0.189)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.004)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 49.5%

Είναι σημαντικό εδώ να κατανοήσουμε ότι ο προηγούμενος στο συγκεκριμένο σκορ (2-away, 4-away) δεν είναι αρκετά καλός για να βιδάρει σε οποιαδήποτε θέση έχει την παραμικρή περιπλοκή.
Ένας επιπλεόν λόγος εδώ είναι ότι ο προηγούμενος έχει σημαντικές ελπίδες διπλού, οπότε ένα βίδος από μέρους του θα "σκότωνε" αυτή την πιθανότητα (gammon killing double) αφού τα διπλά του δεν θα μετρούσαν πια, ενώ θα έθετε σε κίνδυνο όλο το ματς, λόγω του automatic redouble.


 31: 13/9 
Pip=138-129
 
1.playedXG Roller++13/9eq: +1.055
Player:
Opponent:		80.73% (G:29.30% B:1.06%)
19.27% (G:3.47% B:0.15%)
2.XG Roller++13/10 7/6eq: +0.956 (-0.099)
Player:
Opponent:		77.10% (G:30.54% B:0.78%)
22.90% (G:3.88% B:0.16%)
3.XG Roller++13/10 9/8eq: +0.889 (-0.166)
Player:
Opponent:		75.30% (G:29.58% B:0.50%)
24.70% (G:3.74% B:0.14%)
4.4-ply9/5eq: +0.824 (-0.231)
Player:
Opponent:		74.17% (G:27.70% B:0.56%)
25.83% (G:3.97% B:0.13%)
5.4-ply9/6 7/6eq: +0.807 (-0.248)
Player:
Opponent:		73.55% (G:28.19% B:0.54%)
26.45% (G:4.16% B:0.13%)
 41: 23/22 6/2 
Pip=138-125
 
1.XG Roller++13/12 6/2eq: -0.989
Player:
Opponent:		19.99% (G:3.58% B:0.15%)
80.01% (G:28.92% B:0.91%)
2.XG Roller++13/8eq: -1.009 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:		18.54% (G:3.29% B:0.14%)
81.46% (G:27.71% B:0.76%)
3.playedXG Roller++23/22 6/2eq: -1.020 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent:		20.23% (G:3.75% B:0.17%)
79.77% (G:33.05% B:0.83%)
4.XG Roller++6/2 4/3eq: -1.108 (-0.120)
Player:
Opponent:		17.02% (G:2.90% B:0.12%)
82.98% (G:31.69% B:0.99%)
5.XG Roller++13/12 13/9eq: -1.111 (-0.122)
Player:
Opponent:		18.99% (G:3.13% B:0.15%)
81.01% (G:37.53% B:2.03%)

Το σκεπτικό του 13/12 ειναι να φτιάξει κάποια πόρτα στο outfield που θα μπλοκάρει τα πίσω πούλια του.

 No double 
Pip=133-125
 
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 79.51% (G:33.89% B:0.89%) 81.30% (G:25.68% B:1.15%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 20.49% (G:3.82% B:0.19%) 18.70% (G:3.25% B:0.16%)
  Cubeless Equities +1.137 +1.706
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+1.024
     Double/Take:+0.987 (-0.037)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (-0.024)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take

Έχοντας κάνει πλεόν το εξάπορτο, ο προηγούμενος στο σκορ είναι λίγο too good. Είναι χαρακτηριστικό ότι το παράθυρο βίδου (doubling window) είναι εδώ τόσο μικρό που πηδάει κατευθείαν από το No Double στο Too Good.
Κατά τον ίδιο τρόπο, ο υπολοιπόμενος στο σκορ έχει ακόμα οριακό take.

 62: 20/18 20/14 
Pip=133-125
 
1.XG Roller++20/14 7/5eq: +0.862
Player:
Opponent:		76.02% (G:26.89% B:1.36%)
23.98% (G:5.49% B:0.27%)
2.playedXG Roller++20/18 20/14eq: +0.862 (0.000)
Player:
Opponent:		77.61% (G:21.80% B:1.01%)
22.39% (G:4.94% B:0.21%)
3.XG Roller++9/3* 7/5eq: +0.769 (-0.093)
Player:
Opponent:		70.75% (G:33.39% B:0.69%)
29.25% (G:5.46% B:0.21%)
4.XG Roller++8/6 8/2eq: +0.736 (-0.126)
Player:
Opponent:		69.57% (G:28.17% B:0.33%)
30.43% (G:3.54% B:0.15%)
5.XG Roller++9/7 9/3* eq: +0.704 (-0.158)
Player:
Opponent:		68.73% (G:30.15% B:0.52%)
31.27% (G:4.35% B:0.16%)
 42: 13/11* 11/7*  
Pip=133-117
 
1.played3-ply13/11* 11/7* eq: -0.465
Player:
Opponent:		31.83% (G:8.33% B:0.31%)
68.17% (G:17.12% B:0.68%)
2.3-ply13/9 13/11* eq: -0.796 (-0.331)
Player:
Opponent:		24.90% (G:5.88% B:0.21%)
75.10% (G:23.06% B:1.13%)
3.3-ply13/7* eq: -0.856 (-0.391)
Player:
Opponent:		22.53% (G:4.59% B:0.17%)
77.47% (G:20.35% B:0.70%)
4.3-ply13/11* 6/2eq: -0.901 (-0.436)
Player:
Opponent:		21.81% (G:4.66% B:0.14%)
78.19% (G:23.46% B:0.89%)
5.3-ply13/11* 8/4eq: -0.945 (-0.480)
Player:
Opponent:		21.36% (G:4.50% B:0.15%)
78.64% (G:24.68% B:1.16%)
 32: Bar/22 
Pip=127-135
 
1.played3-plyBar/22eq: +0.671
Player:
Opponent:		73.58% (G:17.82% B:0.68%)
26.42% (G:6.58% B:0.24%)
 32: 8/5 7/5 
Pip=127-132
 
1.playedXG Roller++8/5 7/5eq: -0.591
Player:
Opponent:		27.83% (G:7.10% B:0.34%)
72.17% (G:17.70% B:0.82%)
2.XG Roller++13/11 6/3* eq: -0.636 (-0.045)
Player:
Opponent:		27.54% (G:7.02% B:0.37%)
72.46% (G:22.66% B:1.75%)
3.XG Roller++8/3* eq: -0.714 (-0.123)
Player:
Opponent:		25.75% (G:6.35% B:0.33%)
74.25% (G:23.47% B:1.69%)
4.XG Roller++13/11 13/10eq: -0.758 (-0.168)
Player:
Opponent:		25.03% (G:5.64% B:0.26%)
74.97% (G:24.45% B:2.06%)
5.XG Roller++7/5 6/3* eq: -0.782 (-0.192)
Player:
Opponent:		24.78% (G:5.78% B:0.30%)
75.22% (G:27.59% B:1.71%)
 42: Cannot Move 
Pip=122-132
 
1.played3-plyCannot Moveeq: +0.631
Player:
Opponent:		73.22% (G:15.42% B:0.61%)
26.78% (G:7.54% B:0.27%)
 53: 8/3* 6/3 
Pip=122-132
 
1.played4-ply8/3* 6/3eq: -0.250
Player:
Opponent:		34.54% (G:11.50% B:0.47%)
65.46% (G:7.98% B:0.32%)
2.4-ply13/8 6/3* eq: -0.485 (-0.235)
Player:
Opponent:		30.12% (G:8.92% B:0.38%)
69.88% (G:14.76% B:0.66%)
3.4-ply13/10 8/3* eq: -0.513 (-0.263)
Player:
Opponent:		29.33% (G:8.74% B:0.36%)
70.67% (G:14.46% B:0.68%)
4.4-ply13/10 13/8eq: -0.614 (-0.364)
Player:
Opponent:		26.95% (G:7.12% B:0.29%)
73.05% (G:13.85% B:0.60%)
5.3-ply13/5eq: -0.735 (-0.485)
Player:
Opponent:		24.87% (G:6.35% B:0.20%)
75.13% (G:13.99% B:0.54%)
 21: Bar/24 
Pip=114-135
 
1.played3-plyBar/24eq: -0.066
Player:
Opponent:		57.99% (G:8.52% B:0.39%)
42.01% (G:14.16% B:0.69%)
 54: 13/9 13/8 
Pip=114-134
 
1.playedXG Roller++13/9 13/8eq: -0.061
Player:
Opponent:		39.52% (G:11.34% B:0.93%)
60.48% (G:9.91% B:0.51%)
2.XG Roller++13/4eq: -0.224 (-0.164)
Player:
Opponent:		34.93% (G:10.40% B:0.82%)
65.07% (G:10.14% B:0.42%)
3.2-ply13/8 6/2eq: -0.780 (-0.719)
Player:
Opponent:		23.87% (G:6.69% B:0.31%)
76.13% (G:22.87% B:1.23%)
4.2-ply13/9 6/1* eq: -0.891 (-0.830)
Player:
Opponent:		21.09% (G:6.18% B:0.22%)
78.91% (G:22.66% B:1.51%)
5.2-ply13/8 5/1* eq: -0.903 (-0.842)
Player:
Opponent:		20.60% (G:5.91% B:0.22%)
79.40% (G:22.42% B:1.51%)
 61: Bar/18 
Pip=105-134
 
1.played3-plyBar/18eq: +0.382
Player:
Opponent:		68.20% (G:9.62% B:0.44%)
31.80% (G:10.01% B:0.52%)
2.2-plyBar/24 7/1eq: -1.000 (-1.382)
Player:
Opponent:		37.95% (G:7.64% B:0.47%)
62.05% (G:19.51% B:1.02%)
3.1-plyBar/24 9/3* eq: -1.000 (-1.382)
Player:
Opponent:		41.77% (G:8.88% B:0.59%)
58.23% (G:26.19% B:3.11%)
4.1-plyBar/24 8/2eq: -1.000 (-1.382)
Player:
Opponent:		28.20% (G:4.35% B:0.25%)
71.80% (G:23.87% B:2.24%)
 54: 9/5 8/3 
Pip=105-127
 
1.xgXG Roller++13/9 13/8eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:		18.52% (G:4.13% B:0.21%)
81.48% (G:10.84% B:0.43%)
2.XG Roller++13/9 8/3eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:		18.00% (G:4.07% B:0.23%)
82.00% (G:13.11% B:0.45%)
3.XG Roller++13/8 9/5eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:		17.46% (G:3.36% B:0.17%)
82.54% (G:12.16% B:0.40%)
4.playedXG Roller++9/5 8/3eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:		16.87% (G:3.58% B:0.20%)
83.13% (G:12.24% B:0.45%)
5.XG Roller++9/4 8/4eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:		16.52% (G:3.53% B:0.20%)
83.48% (G:12.24% B:0.43%)
 No double 
Pip=96-127
 
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 82.98% (G:12.42% B:0.46%) 83.28% (G:15.26% B:0.70%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 17.02% (G:3.47% B:0.20%) 16.72% (G:3.47% B:0.26%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.839 +1.788
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.930 (-0.070)
     Double/Take:+1.172 (+0.172)
xg Double/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Η θέση δεν είναι too good, επειδή (α) σε περίπτωση που το πούλι στο bar χτυπήθεί, ο Μίμης θα είναι και πάλι not good enough, και (β) επειδή στις τελευταίες ζαριές έχω τρέξει αρκετά ώστε να μειώσω σημαντικά τον κίνδυνο για gammon, οπότε δεν αξίζει το ρίσκο: Double / Pass.

 43: 18/15 7/3*  
Pip=96-127
 
1.xgXG Roller++18/11eq: +0.980
Player:
Opponent:		83.02% (G:12.30% B:0.44%)
16.98% (G:3.27% B:0.12%)
2.playedXG Roller++18/15 7/3* eq: +0.859 (-0.121)
Player:
Opponent:		80.68% (G:13.09% B:0.45%)
19.32% (G:5.16% B:0.40%)
3.4-ply18/14 7/4eq: +0.741 (-0.240)
Player:
Opponent:		76.98% (G:10.20% B:0.33%)
23.02% (G:5.76% B:0.24%)
4.1-ply9/6 7/3* eq: -1.000 (-1.980)
Player:
Opponent:		49.40% (G:10.51% B:0.33%)
50.60% (G:37.81% B:3.31%)
5.1-ply7/3* 6/3eq: -1.000 (-1.980)
Player:
Opponent:		36.85% (G:6.48% B:0.28%)
63.15% (G:38.56% B:1.80%)

Σημαντικό λάθος. Πιθανό δικό μου χτύπημα, και μάλιστα στην άκρη του prime του, θα ήταν joker για μένα. έπειτα θα αρκούσε να μπει το πούλι στον άσο, για να κινδυνεύει να χαλάσει το εξάπορτο.

 54: Cannot Move 
Pip=99-120
 
1.played3-plyCannot Moveeq: -0.875
Player:
Opponent:		20.00% (G:5.08% B:0.18%)
80.00% (G:11.76% B:0.41%)
 No double 
Pip=99-120
 
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 81.13% (G:12.58% B:0.43%) 81.44% (G:13.81% B:0.56%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 18.87% (G:3.94% B:0.21%) 18.56% (G:4.33% B:0.29%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.800 +1.662
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.867 (-0.133)
xg Double/Take:+1.000 (+0.000)
     Double/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Ο Μίμης έπρεπε να κάνει cash (Double / Pass) για τους λόγους που αναφέρθηκαν νωρίτερα, και επιπλέον επειδή (α) μπορεί να μην καταφέρει να  καλύψει το εσωτερικό blot του χωρίς να χαλάσει το εξάπορτο, (β) έχει ντουπλάρει τα εξάρια του (με 6 βγαίνει και με 6 κάνει rolling prime) και (γ) το timing του έχει χειροτερέψει και ίσως να μην φέρει ποτέ το εξάρι για να βγει.

 43: 15/8 
Pip=99-120
 
1.played3-ply15/8eq: +0.769
Player:
Opponent:		77.54% (G:11.06% B:0.44%)
22.46% (G:5.28% B:0.23%)
2.2-ply7/4 7/3eq: -0.548 (-1.317)
Player:
Opponent:		48.79% (G:9.48% B:0.31%)
51.21% (G:19.18% B:0.48%)
3.1-ply15/11 9/6eq: -0.735 (-1.503)
Player:
Opponent:		54.40% (G:10.69% B:0.31%)
45.60% (G:28.81% B:2.16%)
4.1-ply9/6 9/5eq: -0.773 (-1.542)
Player:
Opponent:		51.23% (G:10.62% B:0.32%)
48.77% (G:26.46% B:1.37%)
5.1-ply9/6 7/3eq: -0.781 (-1.549)
Player:
Opponent:		51.59% (G:12.23% B:0.19%)
48.41% (G:26.98% B:2.17%)
 22: Bar/23 5/1* 3/1 
Pip=99-113
 
1.xgXG Roller++Bar/23 13/7eq: -0.918
Player:
Opponent:		19.74% (G:3.18% B:0.11%)
80.26% (G:16.48% B:0.73%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/23 13/11 13/9eq: -1.000 (-0.082)
Player:
Opponent:		18.38% (G:2.92% B:0.11%)
81.62% (G:11.07% B:0.37%)
3.XG Roller++Bar/23 13/11(2) 5/3eq: -1.000 (-0.082)
Player:
Opponent:		17.54% (G:2.92% B:0.12%)
82.46% (G:10.20% B:0.33%)
4.XG Roller++Bar/23 13/9 5/3eq: -1.000 (-0.082)
Player:
Opponent:		17.46% (G:2.76% B:0.11%)
82.54% (G:11.71% B:0.42%)
5.XG Roller++Bar/23 13/11(2) 3/1* eq: -1.000 (-0.082)
Player:
Opponent:		16.52% (G:2.62% B:0.10%)
83.48% (G:14.34% B:0.46%)
6.playedXG Roller++Bar/23 5/1* 3/1eq: -1.044 (-0.126)
Player:
Opponent:		9.59% (G:0.63% B:0.01%)
90.41% (G:8.86% B:0.19%)

Φοβήθηκα τα διπλά και ουσιαστικά εγκατέλειψα το game. Είναι εύκολο να βρει κανείς τη σωστή κίνηση όταν έχει δει τις αναλύσεις των προηγούμενων, αλλά όχι όταν παίζει "στα τυφλά" ένα τόσο σημαντικό ματς.
Οτιδήποτε άλλο εκτός από τη διεκδίκηση του game με 13/7 είναι σφάλμα.
Μερικές φορές, όμως, θέλει κότσια για να αφήσεις τρία blots όταν ο αντίπαλος έχει εξάπορτο σε έναν τέλικό.
Διδακτικό.

 No double 
Pip=91-114
 
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 90.58% (G:9.41% B:0.24%) 89.39% (G:22.81% B:1.24%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 9.42% (G:0.51% B:0.00%) 10.61% (G:0.39% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.969 +2.216
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+1.050
     Double/Take:+1.740 (+0.690)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (-0.050)
 
Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 6.8%
 11: Cannot Move 
Pip=91-114
 
1.played3-plyCannot Moveeq: +1.034
Player:
Opponent:		90.60% (G:7.40% B:0.20%)
9.40% (G:0.89% B:0.01%)
 41: 13/12 13/9 
Pip=91-114
 
1.xgXG Roller++23/22* 13/9eq: -1.043
Player:
Opponent:		10.80% (G:0.59% B:0.01%)
89.20% (G:10.17% B:0.22%)
2.playedXG Roller++13/12 13/9eq: -1.048 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:		9.52% (G:0.50% B:0.00%)
90.48% (G:9.24% B:0.22%)
3.XG Roller++13/8eq: -1.050 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:		9.44% (G:0.52% B:0.00%)
90.56% (G:9.37% B:0.22%)
4.XG Roller++23/22* 6/2eq: -1.063 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:		12.05% (G:0.55% B:0.01%)
87.95% (G:13.49% B:0.41%)
5.XG Roller++23/22* 5/1eq: -1.068 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:		12.20% (G:0.64% B:0.01%)
87.80% (G:14.65% B:0.46%)
 No double 
Pip=86-114
 
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 91.17% (G:9.61% B:0.28%) 89.69% (G:19.61% B:0.89%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 8.83% (G:0.35% B:0.00%) 10.32% (G:0.26% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.986 +2.235
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+1.057
     Double/Take:+1.768 (+0.711)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (-0.057)
 
Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 7.4%
 66: Cannot Move 
Pip=86-114
 
1.played3-plyCannot Moveeq: +1.051
Player:
Opponent:		91.91% (G:8.10% B:0.21%)
8.09% (G:0.63% B:0.01%)
 65: 12/6 9/4 
Pip=86-114
 
1.playedXG Roller++12/6 9/4eq: -1.054
Player:
Opponent:		8.39% (G:0.32% B:0.00%)
91.61% (G:8.96% B:0.26%)
2.XG Roller++12/7 9/3eq: -1.062 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:		8.46% (G:0.33% B:0.00%)
91.54% (G:9.58% B:0.28%)
3.XG Roller++12/1eq: -1.069 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:		8.22% (G:0.31% B:0.00%)
91.78% (G:9.95% B:0.30%)
4.XG Roller++9/3 6/1eq: -1.149 (-0.094)
Player:
Opponent:		8.68% (G:0.33% B:0.00%)
91.32% (G:16.06% B:0.73%)
 No double 
Pip=75-114
 
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 92.13% (G:8.77% B:0.30%) 90.01% (G:16.12% B:0.57%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 7.87% (G:0.28% B:0.00%) 9.99% (G:0.29% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.991 +2.249
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+1.058
     Double/Take:+1.798 (+0.740)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (-0.058)
 
Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 7.3%
 63: Cannot Move 
Pip=75-114
 
1.played3-plyCannot Moveeq: +1.053
Player:
Opponent:		91.54% (G:8.69% B:0.19%)
8.46% (G:0.46% B:0.00%)
 31: 6/2 
Pip=75-114
 
1.xgXG Roller++23/22* 6/3eq: -1.041
Player:
Opponent:		9.13% (G:0.36% B:0.00%)
90.87% (G:8.73% B:0.28%)
2.XG Roller++5/4 5/2eq: -1.050 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:		7.54% (G:0.25% B:0.00%)
92.46% (G:7.68% B:0.25%)
3.XG Roller++6/3 4/3eq: -1.051 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:		7.55% (G:0.25% B:0.00%)
92.45% (G:7.87% B:0.26%)
4.playedXG Roller++6/2eq: -1.051 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:		7.59% (G:0.25% B:0.00%)
92.41% (G:7.89% B:0.25%)
5.XG Roller++23/22* 5/2eq: -1.058 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:		10.69% (G:0.40% B:0.00%)
89.31% (G:12.23% B:0.38%)
 No double 
Pip=71-114
 
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 92.99% (G:7.50% B:0.24%) 90.56% (G:17.27% B:0.62%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 7.01% (G:0.20% B:0.00%) 9.44% (G:0.30% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.987 +2.275
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+1.053
     Double/Take:+1.850 (+0.796)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (-0.053)
 
Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 6.3%
 42: Cannot Move 
Pip=71-114
 
1.played3-plyCannot Moveeq: +1.047
Player:
Opponent:		91.87% (G:7.84% B:0.19%)
8.13% (G:0.35% B:0.00%)
 62: 4/2 
Pip=71-114
 
1.playedXG Roller++4/2eq: -1.070
Player:
Opponent:		7.44% (G:0.25% B:0.00%)
92.56% (G:9.21% B:0.28%)
2.XG Roller++6/4eq: -1.080 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:		8.55% (G:0.33% B:0.00%)
91.45% (G:11.06% B:0.35%)
3.XG Roller++5/3eq: -1.107 (-0.037)
Player:
Opponent:		8.79% (G:0.37% B:0.00%)
91.21% (G:13.40% B:0.47%)
4.XG Roller++3/1eq: -1.157 (-0.088)
Player:
Opponent:		8.18% (G:0.34% B:0.00%)
91.82% (G:16.56% B:0.63%)
 No double 
Pip=69-114
 
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 92.82% (G:8.89% B:0.26%) 90.87% (G:18.54% B:0.69%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 7.18% (G:0.21% B:0.00%) 9.13% (G:0.31% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities +1.008 +2.289
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+1.068
     Double/Take:+1.878 (+0.809)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (-0.068)
 
Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 7.8%
 52: Cannot Move 
Pip=69-114
 
1.played3-plyCannot Moveeq: +1.068
Player:
Opponent:		91.48% (G:9.87% B:0.23%)
8.52% (G:0.31% B:0.00%)
 32: 6/4 6/3 
Pip=69-114
 
1.playedXG Roller++6/4 6/3eq: -1.043
Player:
Opponent:		6.65% (G:0.18% B:0.00%)
93.35% (G:6.21% B:0.20%)
2.XG Roller++5/3 5/2eq: -1.067 (-0.024)
Player:
Opponent:		7.19% (G:0.20% B:0.00%)
92.81% (G:8.81% B:0.27%)
3.XG Roller++4/2 4/1eq: -1.125 (-0.082)
Player:
Opponent:		6.66% (G:0.23% B:0.00%)
93.34% (G:12.53% B:0.37%)
4.XG Roller++6/1eq: -1.126 (-0.083)
Player:
Opponent:		8.12% (G:0.32% B:0.00%)
91.88% (G:14.28% B:0.44%)
5.XG Roller++6/3 5/3eq: -1.210 (-0.167)
Player:
Opponent:		8.51% (G:0.49% B:0.00%)
91.49% (G:20.59% B:1.05%)
 No double 
Pip=64-114
 
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 93.69% (G:6.24% B:0.20%) 92.26% (G:11.28% B:0.36%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 6.31% (G:0.15% B:0.00%) 7.74% (G:0.29% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.980 +2.354
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+1.045
     Double/Take:+2.007 (+0.962)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (-0.045)
 
Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 4.5%
 64: Bar/15 
Pip=64-114
 
1.playedXG Roller++Bar/15eq: +1.021
Player:
Opponent:		93.11% (G:4.57% B:0.09%)
6.89% (G:0.29% B:0.00%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/19 8/4eq: +1.015 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:		92.82% (G:4.36% B:0.08%)
7.18% (G:0.35% B:0.00%)
3.3-plyBar/19 9/5eq: +0.507 (-0.514)
Player:
Opponent:		78.31% (G:4.38% B:0.18%)
21.69% (G:10.70% B:0.07%)
4.2-plyBar/19 7/3eq: +0.330 (-0.691)
Player:
Opponent:		63.57% (G:2.72% B:0.03%)
36.43% (G:12.81% B:0.04%)
5.1-plyBar/19 5/1eq: -1.000 (-2.021)
Player:
Opponent:		43.18% (G:2.35% B:0.11%)
56.82% (G:27.23% B:0.11%)
 64: 5/1 
Pip=64-104
 
1.played3-ply5/1eq: -1.016
Player:
Opponent:		6.66% (G:0.42% B:0.00%)
93.34% (G:4.18% B:0.03%)
 No double 
Pip=60-104
 
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 92.91% (G:5.31% B:0.14%) 93.64% (G:5.24% B:0.15%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 7.09% (G:0.16% B:0.00%) 6.36% (G:0.11% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.948 +2.427
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+1.030
     Double/Take:+2.136 (+1.106)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (-0.030)
 
Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 2.6%
 61: 9/3 8/7 
Pip=60-104
 
1.xgXG Roller++15/14 8/2* eq: +1.033
Player:
Opponent:		92.00% (G:6.50% B:0.14%)
8.00% (G:0.52% B:0.00%)
2.XG Roller++8/2* 2/1eq: +1.027 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:		90.13% (G:6.36% B:0.13%)
9.87% (G:0.60% B:0.00%)
3.XG Roller++15/14 9/3eq: +1.025 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:		93.66% (G:4.47% B:0.09%)
6.34% (G:0.16% B:0.00%)
4.playedXG Roller++9/3 8/7eq: +1.024 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:		93.92% (G:4.45% B:0.09%)
6.08% (G:0.15% B:0.00%)
5.XG Roller++9/8 9/3eq: +1.024 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:		93.51% (G:4.42% B:0.09%)
6.49% (G:0.17% B:0.00%)

Η διαφορά είναι ελάχιστη, αλλά το σημειώνω ως χαρακτηριστική περίπτωση του ότι πρέπει πάντα να έχουμε το μυαλό μας ανοιχτό σε όλες τις δυνατότητες. Αυτό είναι ένα παίξιμο που όταν ο παίκτης το βλέπει, καταλαβαίνει αμέσως γιατί είναι σωστό. Το θέμα είναι να το δει.  

 41: 5/1 2/1 
Pip=60-97
 
1.playedXG Roller++5/1 2/1eq: -1.030
Player:
Opponent:		6.14% (G:0.12% B:0.00%)
93.86% (G:4.83% B:0.14%)
2.XG Roller++5/1 4/3eq: -1.038 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:		6.29% (G:0.15% B:0.00%)
93.71% (G:5.49% B:0.16%)
3.XG Roller++5/1 3/2eq: -1.043 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:		6.21% (G:0.13% B:0.00%)
93.79% (G:5.83% B:0.15%)
 No double 
Pip=55-97
 
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 93.71% (G:5.04% B:0.13%) 94.09% (G:4.99% B:0.15%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 6.29% (G:0.13% B:0.00%) 5.91% (G:0.09% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.960 +2.448
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+1.031
     Double/Take:+2.178 (+1.147)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (-0.031)
 
Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 2.7%
 21: 9/6 
Pip=55-97
 
1.playedXG Roller++9/6eq: +1.041
Player:
Opponent:		94.05% (G:5.53% B:0.12%)
5.95% (G:0.15% B:0.00%)
2.XG Roller++15/13 9/8eq: +1.038 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:		93.64% (G:5.47% B:0.12%)
6.36% (G:0.14% B:0.00%)
3.XG Roller++15/12eq: +1.036 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:		93.79% (G:5.33% B:0.12%)
6.21% (G:0.15% B:0.00%)
4.XG Roller++15/13 7/6eq: +1.036 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:		93.70% (G:5.30% B:0.12%)
6.30% (G:0.17% B:0.00%)
5.XG Roller++9/8 7/5eq: +1.035 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:		93.62% (G:5.33% B:0.12%)
6.38% (G:0.15% B:0.00%)
 63: 4/1 
Pip=55-94
 
1.played3-ply4/1eq: -1.044
Player:
Opponent:		5.75% (G:0.19% B:0.00%)
94.25% (G:5.58% B:0.10%)
 No double 
Pip=52-94
 
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 93.95% (G:6.57% B:0.16%) 94.60% (G:5.78% B:0.15%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 6.05% (G:0.16% B:0.00%) 5.40% (G:0.15% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.991 +2.469
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+1.055
     Double/Take:+2.225 (+1.170)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (-0.055)
 
Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 4.5%
 53: 15/12 7/2*  
Pip=52-94
 
1.playedXG Roller++15/12 7/2* eq: +1.058
Player:
Opponent:		94.12% (G:6.73% B:0.16%)
5.88% (G:0.16% B:0.00%)
2.XG Roller++7/2* 6/3eq: +1.043 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:		93.14% (G:6.33% B:0.15%)
6.86% (G:0.16% B:0.00%)
3.XG Roller++15/10 7/4eq: +1.034 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:		93.00% (G:5.53% B:0.14%)
7.00% (G:0.18% B:0.00%)
4.XG Roller++15/7eq: +1.032 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:		92.89% (G:5.83% B:0.15%)
7.11% (G:0.18% B:0.00%)
5.XG Roller++15/10 6/3eq: +1.027 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:		92.25% (G:5.62% B:0.14%)
7.75% (G:0.22% B:0.00%)
 64: Cannot Move 
Pip=54-86
 
1.played3-plyCannot Moveeq: -1.032
Player:
Opponent:		5.49% (G:0.11% B:0.00%)
94.51% (G:4.55% B:0.09%)
 No double 
Pip=54-86
 
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 93.92% (G:6.16% B:0.15%) 94.55% (G:4.74% B:0.11%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 6.08% (G:0.13% B:0.00%) 5.45% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.984 +2.471
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+1.051
     Double/Take:+2.221 (+1.170)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (-0.051)
 
Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 4.1%
 63: 8/5 8/2 
Pip=54-86
 
1.playedXG Roller++8/5 8/2eq: +1.036
Player:
Opponent:		94.90% (G:4.72% B:0.11%)
5.10% (G:0.05% B:0.00%)
2.XG Roller++12/9 8/2eq: +1.033 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:		94.58% (G:4.62% B:0.11%)
5.42% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
3.XG Roller++12/3eq: +1.032 (-0.004)
Player:
Opponent:		92.74% (G:5.48% B:0.14%)
7.26% (G:0.15% B:0.00%)
4.XG Roller++8/2 6/3eq: +1.021 (-0.014)
Player:
Opponent:		93.34% (G:4.39% B:0.10%)
6.66% (G:0.08% B:0.00%)
5.XG Roller++8/2 7/4eq: +0.916 (-0.119)
Player:
Opponent:		89.29% (G:3.57% B:0.07%)
10.71% (G:0.68% B:0.00%)
 31: Bar/24 4/1 
Pip=54-77
 
1.played3-plyBar/24 4/1eq: -1.050
Player:
Opponent:		4.60% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
95.40% (G:5.35% B:0.13%)
 No double 
Pip=50-77
 
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 95.08% (G:5.76% B:0.15%) 95.68% (G:4.88% B:0.11%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 4.92% (G:0.06% B:0.00%) 4.32% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities +1.001 +2.525
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+1.049
     Double/Take:+2.326 (+1.277)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (-0.049)
 
Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 3.7%
 64: 12/6 5/1*  
Pip=50-77
 
1.playedXG Roller++12/6 5/1* eq: +1.067
Player:
Opponent:		95.72% (G:6.16% B:0.15%)
4.28% (G:0.04% B:0.00%)
2.XG Roller++7/1* 5/1eq: +1.035 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:		96.74% (G:3.48% B:0.08%)
3.26% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
3.XG Roller++12/2eq: +1.004 (-0.063)
Player:
Opponent:		93.46% (G:3.20% B:0.06%)
6.54% (G:0.07% B:0.00%)
4.XG Roller++7/3 7/1* eq: +0.919 (-0.147)
Player:
Opponent:		89.36% (G:5.50% B:0.16%)
10.64% (G:0.54% B:0.00%)
5.XG Roller++12/8 7/1* eq: +0.918 (-0.149)
Player:
Opponent:		89.88% (G:5.55% B:0.14%)
10.12% (G:1.50% B:0.00%)
 53: Cannot Move 
Pip=51-67
 
1.played3-plyCannot Moveeq: -1.032
Player:
Opponent:		3.86% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
96.14% (G:3.69% B:0.14%)
 No double 
Pip=51-67
 
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 95.63% (G:4.15% B:0.08%) 96.24% (G:3.03% B:0.05%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 4.37% (G:0.03% B:0.00%) 3.76% (G:0.01% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.984 +2.552
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+1.035
     Double/Take:+2.377 (+1.343)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (-0.035)
 
Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 2.5%
 31: 6/5 6/3 
Pip=51-67
 
1.playedXG Roller++6/5 6/3eq: +1.053
Player:
Opponent:		95.21% (G:5.47% B:0.14%)
4.79% (G:0.03% B:0.00%)
2.XG Roller++6/2eq: +1.046 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:		95.01% (G:5.44% B:0.13%)
4.99% (G:0.02% B:0.00%)
3.XG Roller++7/4 6/5eq: +0.904 (-0.149)
Player:
Opponent:		90.01% (G:5.26% B:0.13%)
9.99% (G:0.86% B:0.00%)
4.XG Roller++7/3eq: +0.884 (-0.169)
Player:
Opponent:		88.42% (G:5.11% B:0.13%)
11.58% (G:0.81% B:0.00%)
5.4-ply7/6 7/4eq: +0.880 (-0.173)
Player:
Opponent:		87.40% (G:5.20% B:0.18%)
12.60% (G:0.18% B:0.00%)
 55: Cannot Move 
Pip=51-63
 
1.played3-plyCannot Moveeq: -1.021
Player:
Opponent:		4.21% (G:0.01% B:0.00%)
95.79% (G:3.14% B:0.11%)
 Double/Pass 
Pip=51-63
 
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 95.08% (G:3.35% B:0.07%) 95.87% (G:2.54% B:0.05%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 4.92% (G:0.06% B:0.00%) 4.13% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.959 +2.533
Cubeful Equities
xg No double:+1.020±0.002 (+1.019..+1.022)
     Double/Take:+2.343 (+1.323)±0.004 (+2.340..+2.347)
played Double/Pass:+1.000 (-0.020)
 
Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 1.5%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
 
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 15.4 seconds

Από τα 1296 sequences μέχρι την επόμενη ευκαιρία για cash, υπάρχουν μόνο 4 μετά τα οποία δεν έχω πάσο. Ο Μίμης μπορούσε να παίξει ακόμα μια ζαριά και να επανμαξιολογήσει τη θέση.

 Wins 1pt. 
 

Game Summary:

mman  Category Iskandar 
4(2)
-0.309(-3.32%)		 Move Errors
Equity lost (cost)		 2(2)
-0.258(-2.77%)
1
-0.045(-0.48%)		 Double Errors
Equity lost (cost)		 3(1)
-0.223(-2.40%)
0
+0.000		 Take Errors
Equity lost (cost)		 0
+0.000
0 Outplays 0
5(2)
-0.354(-3.81%)		 Total Error
Equity lost (cost)		 5(3)
-0.481(-5.17%)
4
-1.292(-13.88%)		 Joker
Luck		 4
+1.292(+13.88%)
Advanced
8.43		 Level of Play
Performance Rating		 Expert
7.08
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on 14-Mar-18 7:28:12 PM