Previous Game Game 5 Next Game

Click here for printer friendly version  Click here to download the session  Click here to download the session (XG format)

13 point match, Score is mman: 8, Iskandar: 5

Quick Summary:

mman  Category Iskandar 
World Champ. (-0.0008) Total Error Beginner (-0.0509)
World Champ. (-0.0014) Checker Play Distracted (-0.0713)
World Champ. (+0.0000) Cube Play World Champ. (+0.0000)
0.42 Performance Rating 25.47

 62: 24/18 13/11 
Pip=167-167
 
1.playedBook124/18 13/11eq: -0.111
Player:
Opponent:		50.58% (G:13.70% B:0.87%)
49.42% (G:14.05% B:0.59%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.115...-0.107) - [100.0%]
2.Book124/16eq: -0.137 (-0.027)
Player:
Opponent:		50.19% (G:12.54% B:0.72%)
49.81% (G:14.25% B:0.53%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.141...-0.134) - [0.0%]
3.Book113/5eq: -0.163 (-0.053)
Player:
Opponent:		49.03% (G:14.66% B:0.92%)
50.97% (G:14.17% B:0.70%)		Conf.: ± 0.004 (-0.167...-0.160) - [0.0%]
4.Book224/22 13/7eq: -0.214 (-0.103)
Player:
Opponent:		48.00% (G:12.86% B:0.51%)
52.00% (G:13.78% B:0.59%)
5.Book224/22 24/18eq: -0.218 (-0.107)
Player:
Opponent:		48.68% (G:11.80% B:0.52%)
51.32% (G:14.49% B:0.47%)
 
1 Generated by Steven Carey on 17-Jul-13 using eXtreme Gammon 2.10
23328 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 69502489
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 Generated by GameSite 2000, Ltd on 21-May-11 using eXtreme Gammon 2.00
Analyzed in XG Roller++
 No double 
Pip=159-167
 
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 49.28% (G:13.51% B:0.51%) 49.23% (G:13.60% B:0.52%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 50.72% (G:12.89% B:0.64%) 50.77% (G:12.99% B:0.63%)
  Cubeless Equities -0.008 +0.035
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.121
     Double/Take:-0.075 (-0.196)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.879)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 15.4%
 43: 24/21 13/9 
Pip=159-167
 
1.playedXG Roller++24/21 13/9eq: -0.102
Player:
Opponent:		44.10% (G:10.25% B:0.34%)
55.90% (G:13.48% B:0.62%)
2.XG Roller++24/21 24/20eq: -0.117 (-0.015)
Player:
Opponent:		44.19% (G:9.24% B:0.35%)
55.81% (G:13.52% B:0.49%)
3.XG Roller++24/20 13/10eq: -0.144 (-0.043)
Player:
Opponent:		43.34% (G:10.19% B:0.37%)
56.66% (G:15.15% B:0.75%)
4.XG Roller++24/21 8/4eq: -0.159 (-0.057)
Player:
Opponent:		42.89% (G:10.17% B:0.35%)
57.11% (G:15.21% B:0.76%)
5.XG Roller++8/1* eq: -0.165 (-0.064)
Player:
Opponent:		42.03% (G:11.24% B:0.31%)
57.97% (G:15.17% B:0.83%)
 62: 18/16* 16/10 
Pip=159-160
 
1.xgXG Roller++24/18 13/11eq: +0.111
Player:
Opponent:		56.13% (G:10.65% B:0.34%)
43.87% (G:8.52% B:0.26%)
2.playedXG Roller++18/16* 16/10eq: +0.106 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:		55.99% (G:14.79% B:0.68%)
44.01% (G:10.80% B:0.39%)
3.XG Roller++24/16* eq: +0.049 (-0.062)
Player:
Opponent:		55.15% (G:13.79% B:0.70%)
44.85% (G:12.13% B:0.47%)
4.XG Roller++24/18 6/4* eq: +0.030 (-0.081)
Player:
Opponent:		54.08% (G:13.10% B:0.49%)
45.92% (G:11.09% B:0.37%)
5.4-ply24/18 11/9eq: -0.054 (-0.165)
Player:
Opponent:		51.58% (G:10.31% B:0.35%)
48.42% (G:9.84% B:0.31%)

Ενδιαφέρον ότι δύο τόσο διαφορετικές προσεγγίσεις είναι ουσιαστικά ισοδύναμες.

 66: Cannot Move 
Pip=151-176
 
1.played3-plyCannot Moveeq: -0.574
Player:
Opponent:		33.99% (G:6.81% B:0.27%)
66.01% (G:23.43% B:1.39%)
 No double 
Pip=151-176
 
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 66.10% (G:23.82% B:1.43%) 66.08% (G:23.89% B:1.43%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 33.90% (G:6.66% B:0.24%) 33.92% (G:6.69% B:0.24%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.504 +0.993
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.604
     Double/Take:+0.469 (-0.135)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.396)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 20.3%
 31: 8/5 6/5 
Pip=151-176
 
1.playedXG Roller++8/5 6/5eq: +0.544
Player:
Opponent:		65.33% (G:20.56% B:1.22%)
34.67% (G:6.99% B:0.25%)
2.XG Roller++13/10 11/10eq: +0.386 (-0.158)
Player:
Opponent:		62.77% (G:16.47% B:0.83%)
37.23% (G:7.85% B:0.23%)
3.4-ply10/7 8/7eq: +0.348 (-0.196)
Player:
Opponent:		62.11% (G:15.99% B:0.70%)
37.89% (G:7.94% B:0.27%)
4.4-ply24/21 11/10eq: +0.336 (-0.208)
Player:
Opponent:		62.04% (G:15.48% B:0.76%)
37.96% (G:8.31% B:0.26%)
5.4-ply24/23 13/10eq: +0.319 (-0.225)
Player:
Opponent:		61.53% (G:15.69% B:0.75%)
38.47% (G:8.48% B:0.27%)
 53: Bar/22 6/1*  
Pip=147-176
 
1.playedXG Roller++Bar/22 6/1* eq: -0.672
Player:
Opponent:		31.97% (G:6.40% B:0.21%)
68.03% (G:24.60% B:1.86%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/22 13/8eq: -0.713 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent:		30.70% (G:5.94% B:0.23%)
69.30% (G:24.31% B:1.45%)
3.XG Roller++Bar/22 21/16eq: -0.777 (-0.106)
Player:
Opponent:		30.61% (G:5.78% B:0.24%)
69.39% (G:28.17% B:1.84%)
4.4-plyBar/22 8/3eq: -0.895 (-0.224)
Player:
Opponent:		29.88% (G:5.70% B:0.26%)
70.12% (G:31.84% B:2.96%)

Πολύ σωστό παίξιμο από τον Μίμη. Το 13/8 θα με άφηνε να επιτεθώ ανενόχλητος.

 No double 
Pip=148-168
 
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 68.07% (G:24.65% B:1.83%) 68.46% (G:23.60% B:1.68%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 31.93% (G:6.40% B:0.21%) 31.54% (G:6.27% B:0.19%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.560 +1.096
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+0.672
     Double/Take:+0.607 (-0.065)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.328)
 
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 14.2%
 66: Cannot Move 
Pip=148-168
 
1.played3-plyCannot Moveeq: +0.227
Player:
Opponent:		59.48% (G:17.52% B:1.01%)
40.52% (G:11.14% B:0.41%)
 64: 24/18 22/18 
Pip=148-168
 
1.xgXG Roller++22/18 21/15* eq: -0.202
Player:
Opponent:		42.99% (G:10.12% B:0.33%)
57.01% (G:19.15% B:1.06%)
2.XG Roller++21/15* 15/11eq: -0.223 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:		41.37% (G:10.98% B:0.35%)
58.63% (G:18.31% B:0.96%)
3.XG Roller++21/15* 13/9eq: -0.223 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:		41.70% (G:12.01% B:0.45%)
58.30% (G:20.47% B:1.53%)
4.XG Roller++24/14* eq: -0.234 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:		41.59% (G:10.41% B:0.36%)
58.41% (G:19.12% B:1.05%)
5.playedXG Roller++24/18 22/18eq: -0.450 (-0.248)
Player:
Opponent:		36.73% (G:6.88% B:0.19%)
63.27% (G:18.52% B:0.65%)

Αυτό είναι σοβαρό λάθος. Η πόρτα του bar είναι πάντα χρήσιμη, αλλά εδώ οι προτεραιότητες είναι διαφορετικές. Το χτύπημα του δεύτερου πουλίου είναι υποχρεωτικό, λόγω των γνωστών πλεονεκτημάτων (κέρδος στην κούρσα και αφαίρεσης και της άλλης μισής ζαριάς του αντιπάλου) ενισχύεται όμως από το γεγονός ότι το αντίπαλο board δεν είναι ιδιαίτερα δυνατό. Επίσης, κάτι που συχνά παραλείπεται, αφαιρεί τον χρήσιμο builder από την αντίπαλη επίθεση, ενώ αν γίνει η πόρτα στο bar, το πούλι αυτό μπορεί να επιτεθεί στο 4 ή να αποτελέσει τη βάση για πόρτα στο 10 (όπως και έγινε στην παρτίδα).
Γενικά, εδώ ακολουθείται η αρχή ότι τα χτυπήματα στην αρχή της παρτίδας είναι πιο ελκυστικά, επειδή συνήθως τα στρατόπεδα είναι αδύναμε και συνεπώς το ρίσκο αυτού που χτυπάει είναι μικρότερο.

 43: Bar/21 13/10 
Pip=148-158
 
1.playedXG Roller++Bar/21 13/10eq: +0.394
Player:
Opponent:		62.77% (G:14.14% B:0.51%)
37.23% (G:6.33% B:0.16%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/22 10/6eq: +0.255 (-0.139)
Player:
Opponent:		59.45% (G:13.42% B:0.41%)
40.55% (G:7.59% B:0.18%)
3.XG Roller++Bar/21 11/8eq: +0.236 (-0.158)
Player:
Opponent:		58.31% (G:15.36% B:0.55%)
41.69% (G:8.19% B:0.20%)
4.4-plyBar/22 8/4* eq: +0.148 (-0.246)
Player:
Opponent:		56.67% (G:17.59% B:0.70%)
43.33% (G:11.22% B:0.59%)
5.4-plyBar/18eq: +0.082 (-0.312)
Player:
Opponent:		55.34% (G:14.13% B:0.67%)
44.66% (G:10.64% B:0.39%)
 54: 8/4* 6/1 
Pip=141-158
 
1.xgXG Roller++18/14* 6/1eq: -0.384
Player:
Opponent:		38.24% (G:8.43% B:0.22%)
61.76% (G:20.79% B:0.96%)
2.playedXG Roller++8/4* 6/1eq: -0.492 (-0.109)
Player:
Opponent:		34.88% (G:6.82% B:0.10%)
65.12% (G:16.78% B:0.59%)
3.4-ply18/13 18/14* eq: -0.527 (-0.144)
Player:
Opponent:		35.55% (G:6.82% B:0.22%)
64.45% (G:24.72% B:0.96%)
4.4-ply13/8 6/2eq: -0.564 (-0.180)
Player:
Opponent:		32.89% (G:5.59% B:0.13%)
67.11% (G:17.85% B:0.55%)
5.4-ply13/4* eq: -0.584 (-0.200)
Player:
Opponent:		33.85% (G:6.55% B:0.21%)
66.15% (G:23.72% B:1.04%)

Ο Μίμης εδώ θα ήθελε με το 5 να βγάλει το πούλι από την επικίνδυνη θέση 21, αυτό όμως δεν είναι δυνατό, λόγω του blot στον άσσο και του ότι δεν υπάρχει αξιοπρεπές τεσσάρι.
Έτσι το 5 είναι σαφές ότι πρέπει να παιχτεί στον άσσο.
Το χτύπημα στο 4 (8/4*) αφήνει έξι πολύ άσχημα διπλά χτυπήματα με 22,42, 44 και 64, ενώ το χτύπημα στο outfield (18/14*) αφήνει μόνο τρεις τέτοιες ζαριές (22, 33, 44). Αυτό, σε συνδυασμό με το μεγάλο κέρδος στην κούρσα που προσφέρει το 18/14*, καθιστά το 8/4* σημαντικό λάθος.

 44: Bar/21* 13/9 8/4*(2)  
Pip=145-149
 
1.playedXG Roller++Bar/21* 13/9 8/4*(2) eq: +1.054
Player:
Opponent:		76.56% (G:39.80% B:1.15%)
23.44% (G:3.66% B:0.11%)
2.XG Roller++Bar/21* 10/6 8/4*(2) eq: +1.020 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:		75.06% (G:39.73% B:1.10%)
24.94% (G:4.13% B:0.14%)
3.XG Roller++Bar/21* 8/4*(2) 6/2eq: +0.928 (-0.126)
Player:
Opponent:		73.38% (G:37.56% B:1.06%)
26.62% (G:4.83% B:0.14%)
4.XG Roller++Bar/21* 13/9(3)eq: +0.890 (-0.164)
Player:
Opponent:		74.01% (G:25.48% B:1.02%)
25.99% (G:4.14% B:0.10%)
5.4-plyBar/21* 8/4* 6/2(2)eq: +0.826 (-0.229)
Player:
Opponent:		71.58% (G:36.95% B:1.01%)
28.42% (G:6.17% B:0.24%)
 62: Bar/23 
Pip=129-174
 
1.played3-plyBar/23eq: -1.027
Player:
Opponent:		23.74% (G:4.11% B:0.16%)
76.26% (G:43.38% B:1.11%)
 No double 
Pip=129-172
 
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 77.68% (G:38.72% B:1.23%) 77.25% (G:44.67% B:1.31%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 22.32% (G:3.40% B:0.08%) 22.75% (G:3.99% B:0.10%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.915 +1.951
Cubeful Equities
played No double:+1.095
     Double/Take:+1.593 (+0.498)
     Double/Pass:+1.000 (-0.095)
 
Best Cube action: Too good to double / Pass
Percentage of wrong take needed to make the double decision right: 16.1%

Σκέφτηκα για λίγο, αλλά το too good είναι ξακάθαρο. Το αντίπαλο στρατόπεδο, εκτός από πιο αδύναμο είναι και ασυνεχές, ενώ είμαι τόσο μπροστά στην κούρσα, που αντέχω τούλάχιστον ενά χτύπημα.
Φυσικά τον μεγαλύτερο ρόλο παίζει το χτυπημένο του πούλι και το επίσης ευάλωτο στο 2 μου.

 32: 21/18 11/9 
Pip=129-172
 
1.XG Roller++11/8 10/8eq: +1.003
Player:
Opponent:		75.23% (G:34.73% B:1.40%)
24.77% (G:4.09% B:0.13%)
2.playedXG Roller++21/18 11/9eq: +0.999 (-0.003)
Player:
Opponent:		75.86% (G:26.87% B:0.98%)
24.14% (G:3.48% B:0.10%)
3.XG Roller++13/11 13/10eq: +0.995 (-0.008)
Player:
Opponent:		75.44% (G:30.52% B:1.07%)
24.56% (G:3.51% B:0.09%)
4.XG Roller++9/4eq: +0.961 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent:		73.42% (G:33.91% B:1.31%)
26.58% (G:4.52% B:0.14%)
5.XG Roller++13/10 11/9eq: +0.943 (-0.059)
Player:
Opponent:		74.01% (G:30.31% B:1.25%)
25.99% (G:4.05% B:0.11%)
 42: Bar/23 13/9 
Pip=124-172
 
1.XG Roller++Bar/23 6/2eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:		22.78% (G:2.59% B:0.06%)
77.22% (G:19.24% B:0.93%)
2.playedXG Roller++Bar/23 13/9eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:		24.27% (G:3.11% B:0.06%)
75.73% (G:22.53% B:1.19%)
3.XG Roller++Bar/23 8/4eq: -1.000
Player:
Opponent:		23.83% (G:2.89% B:0.06%)
76.17% (G:22.87% B:1.27%)
4.XG Roller++Bar/23 18/14eq: -1.066 (-0.066)
Player:
Opponent:		20.70% (G:2.31% B:0.06%)
79.30% (G:32.50% B:1.91%)
 Double/Pass 
Pip=124-166
 
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take
  Player Winning Chances: 75.61% (G:22.38% B:1.18%) 75.85% (G:23.19% B:1.26%)
  Opponent Winning Chances: 24.39% (G:3.13% B:0.06%) 24.15% (G:3.10% B:0.04%)
  Cubeless Equities +0.715 +1.458
Cubeful Equities
     No double:+0.981 (-0.019)
     Double/Take:+1.119 (+0.119)
played Double/Pass:+1.000
 
Best Cube action: Double / Pass

Το take θα ήταν σημαντικό λάθος εδώ. Η θέση του αμυνόμενου είναι εντελώς ξεχαρβαλωμένη και ο κίνδυνος του διπλού δεν έχει αποσoβηθεί.

 Wins 1pt. 
 

Game Summary:

mman  Category Iskandar 
0
-0.008(-0.05%)		 Move Errors
Equity lost (cost)		 2(2)
-0.357(-2.13%)
0
+0.000		 Double Errors
Equity lost (cost)		 0
+0.000
0
+0.000		 Take Errors
Equity lost (cost)		 0
+0.000
0 Outplays 0
0
-0.008(-0.05%)		 Total Error
Equity lost (cost)		 2(2)
-0.357(-2.13%)
2
+0.784(+4.68%)		 Joker
Luck		 1
-0.784(-4.68%)
World Champ.
0.42		 Level of Play
Performance Rating		 Beginner
25.47
Previous Game   Next Game

Click here for the Legend
Export made by eXtreme Gammon 2.10 ©2009-2012 GameSite 2000 Ltd.
on 14-Mar-18 7:28:11 PM